Adobe: U.S. Holiday Shopping Season to Hit Record $275.1 Billion Online, Rising 6.7% YoY

• Cyber Monday set to remain the biggest online shopping day of the season—with consumers spending over $15 billion in a single day—but Black Friday will see stronger growth due to earlier discounts.
• Consumers are expected to take advantage of competitive deals this season (up to 30% off listed price) to stock up on essentials such as personal hygiene and household cleaning products.
• The overall shopping journey continues to evolve, as consumers embrace AI tools and social influencers to find deals and learn about specific products, while continuing to leverage Buy Now Pay Later when they are ready to transact.

SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Adobe (Nasdaq: ADBE) released today its online shopping forecast for the 2026 holiday season, covering the period from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2026. Based on Adobe Analytics data, the analysis provides the most comprehensive view into U.S. e-commerce by analyzing direct transactions online. Adobe’s forecast is based on over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories—more than any other technology company or research organization. Adobe Analytics is part of Adobe CX Enterprise, relied upon by global brands to accelerate Customer Experience Orchestration, connecting data, content and AI to deliver real-time, personalized interactions.

2026 holidays set to cross $275 billion milestone, with pre-season spending uptick in October

Adobe expects U.S. online sales to hit $275.1 billion this holiday season (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2026), growing 6.7% year-over-year (YoY). Cyber Week (the five-day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday) is set to drive $47.5 billion online (up 7.4% YoY), representing 17.3% of the full holiday season spend.

Cyber Monday (Nov. 30) is expected to set a new milestone for U.S. e-commerce, with consumers spending over $15 billion online in a single day ($15.1 billion, up 6.2% YoY). The second biggest day of the season will be Black Friday ($12.9 billion, up 9.2% YoY), which is growing faster than Cyber Monday—driven in part by having the biggest discounts for categories such as TVs, apparel and appliances. Thanksgiving is set to drive $6.9 billion (up 8.5% YoY), bolstered by impulse shopping: A record 63% of online spend is set to come through mobile devices (up from 61.6% in 2025), outpacing the full season where mobile will account for 57.4% of overall spend (up from 56.4% in 2025).

Of the full holiday season spend, electronics ($63.3 billion, up 5.9% YoY) and apparel ($51.3 billion, up 4.7% YoY) remain tentpole categories in e-commerce, but consumers are also embracing other categories online with stronger growth observed in furniture ($33.4 billion, up 7.3% YoY), grocery ($26.1 billion, up 10.3% YoY), toys ($9.6 billion, up 9.6% YoY) and cosmetics ($9.2 billion, 9.5% YoY).

Pre-season shopping in October continues to accelerate

The Prime Day event in October (which began in 2021) has become an industrywide e-commerce moment, with discounts happening broadly across U.S. retailers. It is now driving significant consumer spend in advance of the holiday season. Adobe expects $95.8 billion will be spent online in October 2026, up a notable 8% YoY. Nearly $10 billion will be spent during the Prime Day event from October 6 to 7 ($9.9 billion, up 9.2% YoY), driven in part by discounts that are set to peak at 19% off listed price. This has changed the shape of the holiday season, pushing U.S. retailers to manage promotions and inventory effectively to capture an additional pre-season spike in shopping interest.

Consumers expected to take advantage of strong discounts to stock up on essentials

Adobe expects competitive discounts this holiday season, up to 30% off listed price (during Cyber Week). Shoppers will see deals throughout the season, up to 14% in early November, up to 21% just before Thanksgiving and up to 10-15% throughout December.

Across categories, deals will be on par with the 2025 season: Discounts in electronics for example, are expected to peak at 30% off listed price (vs. 30.1% in 2025), while discounts for toys are set to hit 29% (vs. 28%). Notable discounts are also expected in TVs at 23% (vs. 24.2%), computers at 23% (vs. 22.8%), apparel at 23% (vs. 23.2%), sporting goods at 19% (vs. 19.5%), appliances at 18% (vs. 19.2%) and furniture at 18% (vs. 19%). Shoppers will find the deepest discounts for electronics and computers on Cyber Monday, but the best deals for TVs, toys, apparel, appliances and furniture is expected to land on Black Friday. Thanksgiving will have the best deals for sporting goods.

While consumers have historically embraced holiday deals to buy gifts or adopt the latest gadgets, many are taking advantage of discounts to stock up on essentials. During Cyber Week, online sales of personal hygiene products are expected to jump 150% (compared to average sales levels in September 2026) and clothing basics by 210%. Other essentials set to see a boost include baby products (up 113%), pet products (up 93%) and household cleaning items (up 49%).

Buy Now Pay Later to drive over $21 billion in holiday season spend

The flexible payment method continues to see traction amongst consumers during the holiday season. Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) is expected to drive $21.3 billion (Nov-Dec), up 6.6% YoY. Usage is set to spike on Cyber Monday, where BNPL will be used for $1.09 billion in online spend. This is the second consecutive year where over a billion dollars were driven by BNPL on Cyber Monday. On Black Friday, BNPL is set to drive $807 million in online spend. Most of BNPL spend will come through mobile devices (82% share vs. desktop), showing the impact of impulse shopping on driving adoption of the payment method.

Additional Adobe Analytics insights

• Another AI-powered holiday season: In the 2024 holiday season, Adobe observed the first uptick in consumers using AI-powered chat and browser services for online shopping (from finding deals to quickly locating products). Adobe expects AI traffic to U.S. retail sites this holiday season (measured by shoppers clicking on a link) to rise 130% YoY. The biggest uptick is expected on Thanksgiving (up 159% YoY), followed by Black Friday (up 95% YoY) and Cyber Monday (up 88% YoY). In an Adobe survey* of 5,000 consumers, 77% of respondents who have used AI for online shopping report feeling more confident in their purchase, and 69% say they are less likely to return an item they bought.
• Hot sellers: Top gaming consoles this season are expected to include Nintendo Switch 2, Sony PlayStation 5/Pro and Xbox Series X, along with games such as Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4, EA SPORTS FC 27, Grand Theft Auto VI, Madden NFL 27, Marvel’s Wolverine, Minecraft Dungeons II, NBA 2K27 and Pokémon Pokopia. Top selling toys are expected to include Beyblade X, Jellycat plush toys, KPop Demon Hunters toys, LEGO Pokémon and SMART Play, NeeDoh Toys, Pokémon Pikachu Puppetronic, Sesame Street Tickle Me Elmo Giggle Max and Toy Story 5 toys. Other expected hot sellers include AirPods Pro 3​, Dyson Airwrap​, Google Pixel 11​, iPhone 18 Pro​, iPhone Duo, KODAK Charmera​, Meta AI Glasses, Oura Ring 5​, Samsung Galaxy S26/Z Fold8​ and WHOOP 5.0.
• Social media and affiliates drive purchase behavior: Adobe measures the impact of different marketing investments during the holiday season, looking at its contribution to revenue. Affiliates/partners (which includes social influencers) and social media overall are set to see the biggest gains in share of revenue, up 12% and 17%, respectively. In comparison, paid search is expected to rise by 4%. Within the affiliates/partner category, cashback and rewards partners leads in affiliate traffic with a 36% share, followed by influencers and creators at 22%. For U.S. retailers, this highlights the importance of partner and social-led acquisition during the holiday season.

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*Consumer survey fielded in July of 2026

Disclaimer: The information and analysis in this release have been prepared by Adobe Inc. for informational purposes only and may contain statements about future events that could differ from actual results. Adobe Inc. does not warrant that the material contained herein is accurate or free of errors and has no responsibility to update or revise information presented herein. Adobe Inc. shall not be liable for any reliance upon the information provided herein.