Crawford & Company® Warns of Heightened Risk to UK Agriculture as a Result of Possible Super El Niño

Report highlights increased flood, storm and livestock risks, with compound weather events posing growing challenges for UK farmers

LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Crawford & Company^® (NYSE: CRD-A and CRD-B) has published its latest report, Super El Niño – Potential Impacts for Agriculture in the UK, examining how a particularly strong El Niño event could create significant and wide-ranging risks for the UK's agricultural sector.

The report warns that a super El Niño could increase weather-related risks for UK farmers, with clear implications for both the frequency and severity of agricultural insurance claims. Heavier rainfall, flooding and more frequent storm activity are likely to drive higher levels of insured loss, including flood and storm damage, adverse impacts on livestock, and business interruption across farming operations.

In addition to direct physical damage, the report highlights several secondary impacts that could further influence loss development and claims complexity. Excessively wet conditions may hinder crop establishment, increase soil erosion and nutrient loss, and drive-up feed costs for livestock producers. From an insurance perspective, these factors may lead to longer-tail losses, increased claims costs, and greater pressure on margins, particularly where policies respond to yield shortfalls or input cost volatility.

The report notes that these risks are compounded by existing baseline conditions. UK farming is already emerging from a period of prolonged dryness followed by exceptionally wet weather, leaving soils stressed, water reserves depleted and overall resilience reduced. For insurers, this reduced resilience can heighten vulnerability across insured portfolios, increasing the likelihood of repeat claims and cumulative losses within short timeframes.

A key finding is the growing likelihood of compound weather events, where drought and flooding occur within the same season. Farms could experience drought-related reductions in crop yields followed by flood-related physical damage within a single policy period, significantly increasing both the severity and complexity of agricultural claims. This presents a particular challenge for underwriting and loss adjustment, as multiple triggers and loss drivers may need to be considered within one claim lifecycle.

Beyond domestic weather impacts, the report also highlights how reduced crop yields in other major agricultural producing regions could lead to increased commodity price volatility. This may result in higher costs for feed, fertiliser and other essential inputs for UK farmers, with potential knock-on effects for insurers through increased sums insured, larger deductibles, elevated business interruption exposures, and greater financial strain on policyholders.

Livestock producers may also face heightened challenges. Warmer, more humid conditions combined with greater weather variability could increase disease prevalence and parasite burdens, particularly in grazing systems where wetter ground encourages the spread of pathogens and reduces pasture quality. These factors could lead to increased mortality and morbidity claims, as well as more complex veterinary-related assessments within insurance coverages.

Andrew Shaw, head of Agriculture, UK & Ireland, said: "The impact of a super El Niño on UK agricultural claims is unlikely to be driven by a single weather event. Instead, it is the interaction between threshold-driven crop responses, sequential weather extremes and wider system pressures that creates a heightened and multi-dimensional risk for UK farming’’.

With the largest dedicated network of specialist agricultural adjusters in the UK, Crawford is able to bring deep sector expertise and on-the-ground capability to support insurers and policyholders as agricultural losses become more complex.

While the precise impact remains uncertain, agricultural businesses can take practical steps now to improve their resilience and risk profile. Strengthening drainage infrastructure, maintaining flexible cropping plans and reviewing input sourcing strategies can all help farms prepare for the potential operational and financial challenges that more volatile weather patterns may bring, while also supporting more effective risk transfer and insurance outcomes.

The report encourages farmers and the wider agricultural sector to review their preparedness strategies and consider measures to strengthen resilience against increasingly complex weather risks. For insurers, this evolving risk landscape reinforces the importance of proactive risk engineering, portfolio monitoring and close engagement with policyholders and specialist agricultural claims supply partners to mitigate losses and support long-term sustainability of agricultural cover.

About Crawford^®

Based in Atlanta, Crawford & Company (NYSE: CRD‐A and CRD‐B) is a leading global provider of claims management and outsourcing solutions to insurance companies and self‐insured entities with an expansive network serving clients in more than 70 countries. The Company’s two classes of stock are substantially identical, except with respect to voting rights for the Class B Common Stock (CRD-B) and protections for the non-voting Class A Common Stock (CRD-A). More information is available at www.crawco.com.

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