Arrivalist Predicts Record-Breaking Holiday Road Trip Volume

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Leading location data company Arrivalist forecasts more than 110 million Americans will travel via automobile during Christmas and New Year’s (December 23 – January 2). This volume outpaces pre-pandemic levels in 2019 by 2.4 percent and last year’s holiday road trips by 9.2 percent.

“American road trip demand has built up a head of steam and neither germs, nor prices, nor the prospect of a recession are keeping people away from holiday traditions with their friends and family,” said Arrivalist Founder and CEO Cree Lawson. “Our Thanksgiving predictions were some of the most optimistic ones released and holiday road tripping exceeded that high bar. We expect more of the same for these holidays.”

Arrivalist’s holiday forecast is based on the following factors:

• 2022 Thanksgiving road trips surpassed 2019 levels by 2.6 percent
• According to TSA.gov, this year’s Thanksgiving flight check-ins were below 2019 numbers by 10 percent. This indicates that consumers are still wary about flight cancellations, delays and high ticket prices.
• COVID-19 cases and deaths continue to have limited impact on travel

“For the past five weeks, Arrivalist’s Daily Travel Index has been trending positively,” said Balakumar Raghuraman, Arrivalist’s Vice President of Analytics and Innovation. “This strong surge in year-end travel is an exciting milestone in the travel industry’s recovery from the pandemic.”

Daily Travel Index Origins

Originally launched in April 2020 in the nadir of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Daily Travel Index was built as a free tool to help the travel industry track the pulse of travel's recovery. It has been picked up by many industry associations and the U.S. government and become the benchmark data set for U.S. road trip travel trends. The Daily Travel Index, and projections made from it, have been picked up by hundreds of media outlets since its inception.

How the Data is Calculated

Arrivalist’s methodology is based on a representative balanced panel of GPS signals representing road trips taken specifically in cars (excluding travel by air). A trip is measured as one where the user has travelled a minimum of 50 miles and spent a minimum of two hours at the destination. Commuter travel or other frequently repeated trips—i.e., cargo deliveries or other reoccurring activities—are excluded from the Daily Travel Index.

About Arrivalist

Arrivalist is the leading location intelligence platform in the travel industry. The company uses multiple location data sets to provide actionable insights on consumer behavior, competitive share, media effectiveness, and market trends. Over 200 travel marketers, including 100 cities, 40 U.S. states, and four of the top 10 U.S. theme parks, use these insights to inform media strategy, operations, and destination development. Arrivalist is headquartered in New York City, with offices in San Francisco and Toronto.