America’s Riskiest States for Extreme Weather: Flooding, Hurricanes and Storms to Drive Biggest Losses by 2050, Cotality Finds

• Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida top the 10 most weather-exposed states, which together hold 32.1M homes and $43BN in annual losses
• California has the most homes exposed, with wildfire losses set to nearly double by 2050
• “Low risk doesn’t mean no risk”: losses in 10 safest states to rise 37.9% by 2050, not far behind the 46.7% in the riskiest

IRVINE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Homes in Louisiana are more exposed to extreme weather than anywhere else in the U.S., according to new Cotality research ranking the highest- and lowest-risk states.

Ranking all U.S. states by the severity of weather perils to property, the analysis reveals that average annual losses (AAL) are projected to rise sharply by 2050 in the highest- and lowest-risk states alike. Flooding, hurricanes and severe convective storms are set to drive the largest losses.

Hurricanes, floods and hail: inside the 10 riskiest states

Louisiana ranks as the highest-risk state, with damages from all weather perils costing $6.7 billion in AAL. Hurricane wind is currently the state’s costliest peril, but Cotality projects inland flooding will overtake it by 2050, at an estimated $3.8 billion in AAL. Average annual losses from all perils are projected to rise 70.3% to $11.4 billion.

Mississippi and Florida rank second and third, driven by exposure to hurricane winds. Hurricane wind is expected to remain the top peril in both states through 2050, with losses set to rise sharply. Florida’s losses from all perils is projected to jump 62.3%, from $10.8 billion in AAL today to $17.5 billion in 2050. Mississippi’s is set to rise 54.1% over the same period, from $2.9 billion to $4.5 billion.

West Virginia ranks fourth, driven by inland flooding, with an estimated $989 million in AAL - a substantial burden for a state with roughly 900,000 homes. Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Texas, Alabama and Missouri complete the top 10.

“When people think of extreme weather, they usually think of places like California, Texas and Florida, but the most severe concentrations of risk aren’t always where you’d expect,” said Dr. Howard Botts, Chief Scientist at Cotality. “West Virginia doesn’t have headline-grabbing hurricanes or wildfires, but its topography leaves it highly exposed. Much of its housing sits in mountain valleys, so as the region gets wetter, flood risk is rising sharply.”

In the safest states, losses are still climbing

The District of Columbia ranks as the lowest-risk of any state or district, with $31 million in AAL from all weather perils combined. Pennsylvania ranks second-lowest, followed by Maryland, Michigan and Virginia. Across the 10 lowest-risk states, the leading perils are severe convective storms, severe winter storms and inland flooding. Oregon is the exception, with earthquakes as its top peril.

Combined, the 10 lowest-risk states face $10.9 billion in AAL from all perils - roughly the same as Florida alone, at $10.8 billion.

“It’s important to remember that ‘low risk’ doesn’t mean ‘no risk’,” said Botts. “Every state has its own mix of perils and resilience, but wherever a state lands in our ranking, weather losses are projected to rise.”

While Maryland ranks as the third lowest-risk state today, its average annual losses are projected to rise 50.4% by 2050, from $609 million to $916 million. Across the 10 lowest-risk states, losses are projected to increase by 37.9% on average - not far behind the 46.7% average for the 10 highest-risk states.

California and Texas have the most homes on the line

When assessing the number of homes at risk in each state, California tops the list with 10.4 million homes and $18.9 billion in AAL. Earthquakes are California’s leading peril, followed by wildfire and inland flooding. The state’s wildfire losses are projected to nearly double by 2050, from $2.9 billion to $5 billion.

Texas ranks second by this measure, with $11.5 billion in AAL across 10.4 million homes. Hurricane wind, hurricane flooding and inland flooding are currently its costliest perils. By 2050, Cotality projects severe convective storms will take the top spot, at an estimated $7.4 billion in AAL - nearly two-thirds of the state’s current losses from all perils.

“State-level rankings offer a topline view, but when it comes to understanding and mapping risk, the detail matters,” added Botts. “To know what communities really face, insurers, lenders and policymakers need data at the county, ZIP code and property level. Local conditions can dramatically change the shape of risk, and pricing that reflects each property’s vulnerabilities helps ensure capital is in place before disaster strikes.”

Notes to editor

U.S. states are ranked using Cotality’s proprietary risk scoring model, which evaluates the severity and likelihood of weather perils using a 1-100 scale. Risk is assessed and scored as it threatens property, as opposed to non-populated areas.

About Cotality

Cotality accelerates data, insights, and workflows across the property ecosystem to enable industry professionals to surpass their ambitions and impact society. With billions of data signals across the life cycle of a property, we unearth hidden risks and transformative opportunities for agents, lenders, carriers, and innovators. Get to know us at cotality.com.