Tax the Top, Fix Housing, Back Becerra: Cost of Living Drives California’s Vote, AIMSA Poll Finds

Seven in ten voters name an economic issue as the state’s top problem. Majorities back extending taxes on high incomes and borrowing for housing, the billionaire tax is a toss-up, and Becerra leads by 24 points even though fewer than half of voters say California is on the right track.

SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--California’s election is being decided at the kitchen table. Seven in ten likely voters name an economic issue as the state’s top problem — cost of living (38%), housing (19%), and the economy and jobs (12%) — and their ballot choices suggest they want the bill sent to the top, according to a new poll by AIMSA, distributed by Quadratín California.

The survey of 2,000 likely voters, conducted October 19–24, finds a consistent pattern on the ballot. Proposition 3, which extends taxes on high incomes, has 56% support; Proposition 37, loans for middle-income homebuyers, 59%; and Proposition 1, affordable housing bonds, 54%. At the same time, 50% back Proposition 42, which would ban state taxes on personal property. The pattern suggests voters favor measures whose cost falls on a narrow group of taxpayers or that expand access to housing, and resist taxes that could reach their own households.

“The message from California voters is clear: affordability and economic opportunity come first,” said Tayde Aburto, President of the Hispanic Chamber of E-Commerce (HISCEC). “Behind these numbers are families working to make ends meet and small business owners navigating rising costs.”

The most closely watched measure, Proposition 40, a one-time tax on billionaires, leads 50% to 44%, a margin the report places within the poll’s range of error. Its outcome is likely to resonate well beyond California.

Politically, the poll reveals a paradox: only 45% of voters say the state is headed in the right direction, yet Democrat Xavier Becerra leads Republican Steve Hilton 58% to 34%. President Donald Trump’s approval among the state’s likely voters is just 29%, compared with 50% for Governor Gavin Newsom, suggesting the race is being shaped as much by views of Washington as of Sacramento. The race appears largely settled: 24% have already voted and only 13% say they could change their minds.

For voters of Mexican origin, the affordability squeeze crosses the border. Seventy-one percent of Latino voters were born in the U.S., yet 29% send remittances to their country of origin and 34% chose to answer in Spanish: for nearly three in ten, one household budget supports two economies. Mexican-origin voters back Becerra 66% to 25%, while Latinos of other origins vote almost exactly like the state as a whole (58% to 32%). And while 52% of Latino voters approve of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, only 41% approve of the U.S.–Mexico relationship.

Leo Espinoza, President of Quadratín California, said the findings place the voices of Latino and Mexican-origin voters — a community with strong ties to Mexico — at the center of the conversation about the state’s future.

A second wave of the AIMSA survey, in the field since October 26, will show whether the billionaire tax and other close measures move in the final stretch. The full report, with results by region, age, sex and party, all 14 propositions, and the module on Latino and Mexican-origin voters, is available to journalists. Jesús Javier García Ruiz, Director of AIMSA, is available for interviews.

Methodology

AIMSA independently directed, conducted and financed the study; Quadratín California is the media partner and HISCEC supports outreach. The survey combines 1,200 SMS-to-web interviews linked to the voter file and 800 online panel interviews, in English and Spanish, across seven regions, with an oversample of 800 Latino voters. The 95% credibility interval is ±3 points statewide and ±4.5 among Latinos, larger for subgroups such as voters of Mexican origin. Results are not a forecast.

About HISCEC

Founded in 2008, the Hispanic Chamber of E-Commerce advances entrepreneurship, digital innovation, financial education and economic opportunity for small businesses.

About Quadratín California

Part of the Quadratín news network, Quadratín California provides Spanish-language coverage of issues affecting California and the binational community.

About AIMSA

AIMSA is a public opinion research organization responsible for survey design, fieldwork, weighting and analysis.