Cotality: Hurricane Isaias Threatens About 777,000 Homes Along the Northern Gulf Coast as a Major Hurricane

Reconstruction cost value of homes at risk of wind damage in the eight counties under a Hurricane Warning totals about $241.6B

IRVINE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Cotality, a leader in property information and analytics, today released data analysis showing about 777,000 homes across the eight counties under a Hurricane Warning, from Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle, sit at moderate or greater risk of wind damage from Hurricane Isaias. Those homes carry a reconstruction cost value (RCV) of about $241.6 billion. Isaias became a Category 3 major hurricane Friday morning, the first of the 2026 Atlantic season, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph.

Forecasters expect it to weaken to a high-end Category 2 before landfall late Friday, Oct. 9, or early Saturday, Oct. 10. Storm surge adds to the threat: about 342,000 homes across the Storm Surge Warning area, from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River, face moderate or greater surge risk, representing about $101.5 billion in RCV. Figures reflect warnings in the National Hurricane Center’s 7 a.m. CDT advisory and its 7:20 a.m. update on Friday, Oct. 9.

As Isaias nears the coast, its path will come into sharper focus and the metropolitan areas at risk will narrow. For the most up-to-date hurricane exposure estimates, visit Cotality’s natural hazard risk information center, Hazard HQ Command Central^®.

“The continental U.S. has had quiet 2025 and 2026 hurricane seasons, but it looks like that ends this weekend,” said Cotality Chief Scientist Howard Botts. “Isaias could bring two very different claims outcomes. Storm surge is a flood problem, so most of those losses will involve the National Flood Insurance Program and private flood carriers. Wind damage and outage-related claims are a homeowners policy problem. And because Isaias should keep a wide wind field as it races inland, homeowners well beyond the coast in Alabama and Georgia may be filing claims, too.”

The National Hurricane Center forecasts 6 to 9 feet of storm surge from the Alabama-Florida border to Grayton Beach, Florida, which covers Pensacola Beach, Navarre, Fort Walton Beach, and Destin. Forecasters also note that a delay of only about six hours in the onset of wind shear could bring a stronger hurricane onshore.

Total number and RCV ($ in billions) of homes at moderate or greater risk of Hurricane Isaias wind and surge damage

Figures are approximate

Area	Homes at wind risk	Wind RCV	Homes at surge risk	Surge RCV
Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties, Florida	353,000	$115.8	78,000	$26.1
Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent metro area	201,000	$66.1	32,000	$10.7
Mobile metro area	161,000	$46.9	21,000	$5.3
All eight Hurricane Warning counties	777,000	$241.6	217,000	$65.2

Homes at moderate or greater risk of Hurricane Isaias storm surge damage

Figures are approximate; RCV in $ billions

Area	Homes at surge risk	Surge RCV
Okaloosa County, Florida	28,000	$8.6
Walton County, Florida	18,000	$6.8
Escambia County, Florida	18,000	$5.2
Santa Rosa County, Florida	14,000	$5.6
Full Storm Surge Warning area	342,000	$101.5

The tables above show the single-family and multifamily homes exposed to wind and storm surge damage along Isaias’ forecast path. RCV figures assume 100% destruction of all at-risk homes, the worst-case scenario, and are not loss estimates.

Storm surge can cause significant property damage when high winds and low pressure cause water to amass inside the storm, releasing a powerful rush over land when the hurricane moves onshore. For a complete view of hurricane risk across Atlantic and Gulf Coast metropolitan areas, view Cotality’s 2026 hurricane risk report.

About Cotality

Cotality accelerates data, insights, and workflows across the property ecosystem to enable industry professionals to surpass their ambitions and impact society. With billions of data signals across the life cycle of a property, we unearth hidden risks and transformative opportunities for agents, lenders, carriers, and innovators. Get to know us at cotality.com.