HomeServices of America Releases Its 2026 Mid-year Housing Outlook

A mid-year check-in, produced in partnership with Keeping Current Matters, shows a market that absorbed an early year shock and held its footing – with affordability improving, price growth moderating and a historic generational transfer of housing wealth beginning to take shape

MINNEAPOLIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--HomeServices of America, the nation’s premier provider of homeownership services, today released its 2026 Mid-Year Housing Outlook, a comprehensive check-in on the national real estate market produced in partnership with Keeping Current Matters.

The report finds that the housing market absorbed a significant early year shock and remained fundamentally sound. After the 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 5.99% in late February 2026 – its first dip below 6% in three and a half years – the Iran conflict interrupted the market’s early momentum, sending inflation and mortgage rates higher.

Still, as of June 2026, rates remained below the 6.86% average recorded a year earlier, and affordability improved year-over-year in all four U.S. regions.

The report also addresses two of the most persistent narratives in today’s housing market, whether waiting for lower rates pays off, and whether sellers pricing homes on 2021-era expectations are working against their own interests. In both cases, the data argues for informed, professionally guided decisions over nostalgia.

Looking further out, the report highlights a demographic story that will shape housing supply for the next two decades. Baby Boomers, who hold an estimated 40% of U.S. residential real estate and $18 to $20 trillion in housing wealth, are beginning a gradual, generational transfer of that inventory.

“Our mid-year outlook confirms that the housing market’s challenges remain driven more by macroeconomic conditions than by housing fundamentals. Unlike the Great Recession, today’s market is characterized by strong homeowner equity, limited inventory, and historically low distressed sales. While elevated mortgage rates continue to suppress transaction volume, we believe these are cyclical headwinds rather than structural weaknesses, positioning the industry for a healthy return to normalized sales activity as economic conditions improve,” said Chris Kelly, President & CEO of HomeServices of America.

Key findings include:

• In spite of geopolitical strife, June 2026 mortgage rates remained below the 6.86% average recorded a year earlier, and most economists expect the 30-year fixed rate to hold in the 6.0% to 6.5% range through year-end.
• Today’s mortgage rates, near 6.5%, are in line with history. The 30-year fixed rate has averaged approximately 7.7% since 1971. The ultra-low rates of 2020-2021 were a pandemic-era anomaly, not the benchmark for what “normal” looks like.
• Affordability improved year-over-year in all four U.S. geographic regions, as wage growth continues to outpace home price appreciation in many markets.
• Home prices continue to moderate rather than decline. The U.S. median existing-home price reached $417,700 in April 2026, up 0.9% year-over-year, the 34^th consecutive month of annual price gains.
• A quarterly Fannie Mae/Pulsenomics survey of more than 100 housing economists projects home prices will appreciate approximately 1.7% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, with the overwhelming majority of panelists forecasting no national price decline.
• Sellers’ expectations remain out of step with market reality. While 83% of sellers expect to sell at or above asking price, 34.2% of sellers in February 2026 reduced their list price.
• Inventory continues to improve, giving buyers more choice and time to decide. April housing starts rose 4.6% year-over-year to an annualized rate of 1.465 million, though builder confidence remains cautious.
• Regional divergence continues to define the market. The Northeast remains the most supply-constrained and seller-favored region, the Midwest remains the nation’s affordability anchor, the South is shifting toward buyers amid new construction, and the Mountain West and West are seeing meaningfully improved buyer leverage.
• Foreclosure filings rose 18% year-over-year in April 2026 but remain at just 0.26% of all housing units nationally, compared to 2.23% at the peak of the 2008 crisis.
• Homeowner equity, which averages approximately $295,000 nationally, remains the key structural difference from the last housing downturn.
• A historic, multi-decade transfer of housing wealth is beginning. Baby Boomers hold approximately 40% of U.S. residential real estate, representing $18 to $20 trillion in housing wealth, that will gradually change hands over the next 15 to 20 years.
• For most American households, the home remains the single most powerful wealth-building tool available, representing 60% to 70% of net worth for middle-income families, reinforcing the case for homeowners to manage that asset strategically, whether through renovation, an accessory dwelling unit or a long-term hold.

“This mid-year update is exactly why we committed to a twice-a-year cadence,” said Gretchen Rosenberg, HSoA Executive Liaison for Industry Affairs and Kentwood Real Estate CEO. “The market shifted meaningfully between January and June, and agents and consumers deserve a report that reflects what’s happening right now, not six months ago.”

“Every uncertain market produces its own reasons for inaction,” concludes Kelly. “The buyers and sellers who succeed in 2026 will be the ones who rely on data and professional guidance, not on nostalgia for a market that no longer exists.”

For additional information, click here, and to view the full report, click here.

ABOUT HOMESERVICES OF AMERICA

HomeServices of America is, through its operating companies, the country's preeminent provider of homeownership services, including brokerage, mortgage, franchising, title, insurance and relocation services. HomeServices of America is the owner of the Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices franchise network. HomeServices is owned by Berkshire Hathaway Energy, a consolidated subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. HomeServices’ operating companies offers integrated real estate services, including brokerage services, mortgage originations, title and closing services, property and casualty insurance, home warranties and other homeownership services. Information about HomeServices is available at www.homeservices.com.