Milliman analysis: Corporate pension funding levels rise for eighth consecutive month in November

Rising discount rates offset drop in plan assets for the Milliman 100 PFI plans

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Milliman, Inc., a premier global consulting and actuarial firm, today released its monthly Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index (PFI), which analyzes the 100 largest U.S. corporate pension plans.

During November, the PFI funded ratio edged up from 107.0% at the end of October to 107.1% as of November 30. A 1-basis-point rise in discount rates, to 5.34% in November, drove this result. It shaved $3 billion from plan liabilities and offset market returns of only 0.44%. As of November 30, the PFI plan assets had slipped to $1.325 trillion while projected benefit obligations had dropped to $1.237 trillion.

“Despite poor market returns, the corporate pension funding rally continued in November with an eighth straight month of gains,” said Zorast Wadia, author of the PFI. “Although funded levels have not been this high since before the dot-com crisis, all eyes are on the end of December, when most corporate plans will reveal the discount rate and asset values in effect for year-end disclosures and next year’s pension expense.”

Looking forward, under an optimistic forecast with rising interest rates (reaching 5.99% by the end of 2026 and 6.59% by the end of 2027) and asset gains (10.53% annual returns), the funded ratio would climb to 122% by the end of 2026 and 137% by the end of 2027. Under a pessimistic forecast (4.69% discount rate at the end of 2026 and 4.09% by the end of 2027 and 2.53% annual returns), the funded ratio would decline to 97% by the end of 2026 and 89% by the end of 2027.

Read this month’s complete Pension Funding Index or Milliman’s full range of annual Pension Funding Studies. For regular updates of Milliman’s pension funding analysis, email [e-mail].

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