KBRA Releases Research – Ukraine Refugee Crisis and Poland’s Economic and Credit Outlook

DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--KBRA Europe (KBRA) releases research on the Ukrainian refugee crisis and the impact on Poland and other host countries.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has forced people to flee their homes and seek refuge in neighbouring countries at a scale and pace of refugee flow not seen in Europe since World War II. About 60% of Ukrainians have initially fled to Poland, making it a focal point of the crisis. What is exceptionally different about this refugee crisis is the widespread positive reception given to the Ukrainian refugees, coupled with the strong and swift financial support host countries are poised to receive. Together, these factors will significantly diffuse the burden of absorption on host counties. The impact on sovereign credit—and Poland is most relevant here given the extent of Ukrainian refugee inflows into that country—requires analysis of the shock through both a financial and political lens. By both metrics, KBRA believes the risks are manageable. We also note that the situation is fluid, and we are monitoring it closely for credit impacts, including a scenario where the Ukrainian refugees become permanent migrants to their host countries.

Click here to view the report.

Related Publications

• Western Sanctions Weigh on Oil Security Fears and Rising Prices
• Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Initial Contours of Credit Risk
• ESG: The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Europe’s Energy Dependency
• Coronavirus (COVID-19): EU Ratings Resiliency in Face of the Pandemic

About KBRA

KBRA is a full-service credit rating agency registered in the U.S., the EU, and the UK, and is designated to provide structured finance ratings in Canada. KBRA’s ratings can be used by investors for regulatory capital purposes in multiple jurisdictions.