Study Finds Prediction Markets in Half of Sampled Midterm Forecast Searches

LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Ask Google who will win the Senate this November, and there's an even chance a betting market is part of the answer. A CasinoReviews.net study of 140 Google results pages across 14 US cities found Polymarket or Kalshi on page one for half of everyday forecast searches such as "election forecast" and "midterm polls." The platforms appeared in all eight cities tested in states where state law bans betting on elections.

Although 24 states ban election betting outright, federally regulated prediction markets still offer election contracts across the country, and whether state law reaches them is being argued in court.

Key findings

• Half of forecast searches showed a betting platform. On 112 mobile results pages, 50% showed Polymarket or Kalshi on page one.
• Platforms appeared in searches localized to eight cities in states with election-betting prohibitions (Houston, Phoenix, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Detroit, Charlotte, Las Vegas and Chicago)
• Search interest doesn't follow the law. Across 46 states, Google Trends interest in Polymarket and Kalshi, relative to interest in the 2026 elections, showed no consistent difference between ban states and states with no such law.
• Kalshi owns odds searches, Polymarket owns forecasts. Kalshi appeared on all 28 pages for "senate odds" and "midterm odds," but on only 6% of forecast pages.
• About 1 in 120 midterm searches uses betting or odds language. Forecast searches without betting language outnumber them nearly nine to one.
• Searchers treat markets like polls. "Polymarket polls" and "Kalshi polls" rank among the top related searches.

"Most people who search for midterm predictions aren't looking to place a bet. They want to know who's going to win," said Nikoleta Kuncheva, lead researcher and project manager at CasinoReviews.net. "For half of those searches, Google answers with a betting market. A state can make election betting a crime, but nothing in the search results tells a voter that."

Methodology

Researchers checked 10 searches in each of 14 cities on October 15 and 16, 2026, using location-specific Google settings on mobile. Google Trends data covers August 1 to October 11, 2026, in the News category, averaged across four samples. Search volumes come from Ahrefs, covering 10,092 US keywords containing "midterm elections." Google Trends measures relative search interest, not betting activity. Full data, a state-by-state map and results-page screenshots are available on request.