CATalyst Council Reports After Five Years of Declining Veterinary Visits, a Demographic Forecast Resets Industry Expectations

A new CATalyst Council white paper, “Puppocalypse, Kitten Craze, and the Expectations Reset,” uses the age demographics of dogs and cats to forecast combined U.S. clinical visit growth of -2% to 0% through 2030, well below the 2% to 3% the industry expects.

NORTH CANTON, Ohio--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The CATalyst Council today released “Puppocalypse, Kitten Craze, and the Expectations Reset: What Pet Demographics Reveal About U.S. Veterinary Visits Through 2035,” a white paper that explains why the U.S. veterinary services industry is now in its fifth consecutive year of declining clinical visits and why that decline is likely to persist through the next decade.

The analysis was co-authored by CATalyst Council, Vetsource, Kynetec, and Dedekind Cut Labs and draws on multiple independent industry data sources.

The report is built from the age demographics of the dogs and cats that visit full-service practices. Its central, empirically grounded finding is that the size of each year’s puppy and kitten visit cohort largely determines that cohort’s veterinary visits for the rest of those animals’ lives. Smaller cohorts entering today therefore lock in lower visit volumes for years to come, regardless of any future recovery in new-pet adoption.

Two species, two opposite stories. New puppy clinical visits have declined for four straight years since the Covid boom and now sit roughly 38% below their 2018/19 baseline, a pattern the authors call the “Puppocalypse.” Kitten visits have held 8% to 10% above baseline over the same period, the “Kitten Craze,” and generate progressively more visits per cat as the cohort ages. By 2026 the gap between the two had widened to 46 index points.

The pandemic puppy boom was smaller and less durable than commonly assumed. Entry visit counts peaked near 22% above baseline, but only about 13% persisted once temporary work-from-home distortions unwound. The kitten boom, by contrast, kept essentially all of its gains and continued to build with age.

“The industry is generally planning for veterinary visits to return to 2% to 3% annual growth as soon as next year. The demographics do not support that view. Four below-baseline puppy cohorts are already in the visit pipeline, and no future adoption recovery removes them. We put the realistic long-term range for U.S. clinical visit growth at -2% to 0% through 2030. The canine puppy visit decline had not yet stabilized as of the first quarter of 2026.”

Jon Ayers, Chair, CATalyst Council Market Insights Committee, and lead author

A reset of expectations. The replacement-rate logic at the heart of the paper puts combined clinical visit growth at -2% to 0% through 2030, because visits from each new puppy cohort now run below the rate at which older dogs leave the active visit pool. Rising feline numbers only partly offset the shortfall, because cats contribute less than a third of the visits that dogs do. Reaching the industry’s hoped-for 2% to 3% would require sustained increases in puppy visits with no historical precedent.

A transparent, reproducible method. The forecast stacks each birth-year cohort along observed visit attrition curves, extends the model into the geriatric years using the CATalyst Council 2026 State of the Cat primary research, and runs four scenarios from a flat “Floor” case to a “What It Would Take” case that shows the assumptions a near-term return to 2% to 3% would require. The analysis draws on Vetsource, Kynetec PetTrak, Animalytix, Google Trends, and Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Two independent data panels agree on the size of the puppy decline to within about 1%. The authors document the methodology so that others can reproduce the forecast.

An economic backdrop, treated as preliminary. The paper examines candidate contributors to the canine contraction without claiming them as established causes. Among them is veterinary service inflation, which Bureau of Labor Statistics data show has risen 51.4% since December 2019 against 28.5% for all items. The paper forecasts clinical visits and does not address revenue per visit.

Why it matters. The 2% to 3% visit assumption sits beneath the recurring-revenue growth narratives of various practice groups and manufacturers that make up the U.S. veterinary services ecosystem. A plan that assumes flat-to-negative patient volume implies a materially different business than one riding a rising tide of patients, with different consequences for capacity, staffing, and same-store growth.

“Cats are the one segment of this market that is growing, and the practices and groups that get serious about feline care now are the ones positioned for the next decade. CATalyst Council estimates that only about a third of household cats are seen each year, so feline-specific marketing and a lower-stress, feline-friendly experience are the largest organic growth opportunity most practices have. Demographics set the visit base, but closing the feline medicalization gap and bringing existing patients in more regularly are levers every practice can pull.”

Gina Fortunato, Executive Director, CATalyst Council

“CATalyst Council published this analysis because the profession deserves a clear-eyed view of its patient demographics, even when the message is an uncomfortable one. Four years of below-baseline puppy cohorts are already in the visit pipeline, and no future rebound in adoption can replace the dogs those years did not add. How practices respond to that is within their control, and the organizations that stop waiting for a recovery and start pursuing organic visit growth from the clients they already have, while inspiring a higher standard of care, will turn a structural headwind into a manageable one. This is the kind of innovation within the four walls of the practice that will make a difference.”

Kristin Wuhrman, Chair, CATalyst Council

Read the full report

“Puppocalypse, Kitten Craze, and the Expectations Reset” is available at no cost on the CATalyst Council website at https://catalystcouncil.org/feline-market-insights/, including all figures, scenario tables, and methodology.

For media inquiries or to request the underlying data, contact Gina Fortunato, Executive Director, at [e-mail].

About the CATalyst Council

CATalyst Council’s mission is to advance feline health through feline-specific intelligence that drives evidence-based innovation and lifelong care. CATalyst recognizes that feline trends can only be understood within the context of both feline and canine trends, which is why its market insights work examines both species. The organization produced the CATalyst 2026 State of the Cat Report based upon a household survey of over 60,000 U.S. households, and issues a quarterly Feline Veterinary Market Insights Report, an intelligence series integrating seven independent data sources and distributed to its sponsor organizations across the veterinary industry. More information is available at catalystcouncil.org.

Authors: Jon Ayers, Gina Fortunato, Kristin Wuhrman, and Jane Brunt, DVM (CATalyst Council); Jim Hansbauer (Vetsource); Stephanie Crisp (Kynetec); David Kincaid (Dedekind Cut Labs).

Sources: Vetsource clinical visits by age; Kynetec PetTrak; Animalytix State of the Industry; CATalyst Council 2026 State of the Cat Report; Google Trends; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, veterinary services CPI. Forecast and methodology: “Puppocalypse, Kitten Craze, and the Expectations Reset,” CATalyst Council, June 2026.