KBRA Releases Research – Latin America’s Rightward Shift May Not Yield Durable Credit Gains

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--KBRA releases research examining whether Latin America's (LATAM) recent rightward political shift will endure and, consequently, if it can produce durable sovereign credit gains.

Right-of-center parties have prevailed in numerous elections across LATAM since 2023, prompting a debate about whether the shift represents merely a backlash against incumbents or a more durable political realignment. Electoral outcomes play a key role in economic policy and are closely monitored by the investment community. Therefore, the recent trend of falling popularity among recently elected right-of-center leaders in LATAM calls into question the longevity of the rightward shift in politics. All of KBRA’s public sovereign ratings in LATAM are on Stable Outlook, but we continue to monitor developments closely for their impact on creditworthiness.

Key Takeaways

• Right-wing incumbent presidents have won five of seven nationwide elections in LATAM since 2023, after losing all five held from 2020 to 2022.
• The average popularity of LATAM right-wing presidents has fallen 10.8 percentage points more than that of left-wing presidents since March 2024.
• Increasingly challenging macroeconomic and security conditions are driving demands for more populist economic policies, thereby threatening right-wing agendas.

Click here to view the report.

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About KBRA

KBRA, one of the major credit rating agencies, is registered in the U.S., EU, and the UK. KBRA is recognized as a Qualified Rating Agency in Taiwan, and is also a Designated Rating Organization for structured finance ratings in Canada. As a full-service credit rating agency, investors can use KBRA ratings for regulatory capital purposes in multiple jurisdictions.

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