U.S. Business Leaders Split on 2026 Outlook as Economic Pessimism Doubles and Geopolitics Surges as a Top Business Risk

Altum Strategy Group’s annual NextWave Survey reveals inflation, regulatory instability, and trade conflicts shaping corporate confidence heading into 2026

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Today, Altum Strategy Group, in partnership with YouGov, launched its annual NextWave Survey results, which captures sentiment from over 500 senior executives across industries. For 2026, business leaders are entering with sharply divided expectations for the economy, and for the first time since 2020, optimism and pessimism are nearly even — with 41 percent of leaders optimistic about the year ahead and 42 percent pessimistic — signaling a dramatic cooling from last year’s confidence rebound.

“We’re seeing a boardroom reset,” said Matt Gantner, CEO of Altum Strategy Group. “Leaders aren’t pulling back completely, but they’re planning more cautiously, prioritizing people, operations, and productivity over bold expansion. The macro story is no longer just about rates or inflation; it’s about managing volatility and preparing for what’s next.”

For the majority of business leaders, economic conditions are not just a worry; they’re the biggest external challenge to achieving revenue targets, with 73% of leaders identifying them as a key obstacle. This concern has grown significantly, with 68% now viewing it as a risk, up from 57% last year.

Additional Key Findings

• Pessimism doubles year-over-year: Confidence has flattened as inflation (63%) and regulatory instability (43%) remain dominant business pressures.
• Geopolitics rises to the #2 external risk (29%): Executives now cite trade conflicts (49%) and supply chain and business disruption from geopolitics (37%) as having the greatest impact on their business in 2026. Geopolitics overtook the regulatory environment (28%) in terms of risk this year.
• Transformation turns inward: Leaders are investing in people and management (42%) and technology modernization (46%), while focus on ESG and M&A continues to fade.
• Two-speed economy emerging: Large enterprises plan to accelerate AI and tech modernization investments, while smaller firms brace for tighter credit and competitive pressure, and focus on innovation.

About the Survey
Altum’s NextWave Survey (Executive Summary) was conducted by Altum Strategy Group in partnership with YouGov in September/October 2025. The study reflects responses from 517 U.S. senior executives and decision-makers across industries, including financial services, technology, healthcare, manufacturing, and professional services. The data was weighted by company size and sector to mirror the U.S. business economy. This is the third year the survey has run.

About Altum Strategy Group
Altum delivers the next technology wave to clients in a tailored way to empower teams and create value. Thinking boldly, deploying inclusive collaboration and active engagement is how we work. Altum applies our diverse expertise to lead strategy development at all levels, enabling us to incorporate cutting-edge digital solutions and innovative business operations that deliver impactful results. Altum powers our clients and their teams so they can ride the current wave and anticipate the next one. Go to www.altumstrategy.com for more.