Brazil’s National Fertiliser Plan Fails to Tackle Synthetic Fertiliser Overuse and Its Climate, Nature, and Health Impacts

Investors have a key role to play in driving the transition to regenerative agriculture in Brazil

• Brazil’s National Fertiliser Plan lacks clear targets for reducing synthetic fertiliser overuse.
• Brazil’s fertiliser-related GHG emissions could increase by 89% by 2050, with similar growth in harmful water and air pollution if demand for fertiliser is not reduced.
• Planet Tracker analysis shows that reducing synthetic fertiliser use - through regenerative agriculture and other actions - could cut Brazil’s fertiliser-related GHG emissions by up to 86% by 2050, presenting a significant opportunity for financial institutions to support this transition.

LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--New research from Planet Tracker, reveals that Brazil’s National Fertiliser Plan (PNF) aims to decrease reliance on synthetic fertiliser imports, which currently account for 86% of national fertiliser use. However, it lacks clear targets for curbing synthetic fertiliser overuse and the associated climate, nature, and health risks.

The report, Brazil’s fertiliser risks: identifying innovation and investment opportunities, finds that synthetic fertiliser use emits between 79 Mt CO₂e and 83 Mt CO₂e each year, equivalent to 7% of national emissions in 2021. Almost half (47%) of these GHG emissions are from the production of imported fertiliser.

The water pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with synthetic fertiliser overuse negatively impact Brazil’s natural capital, on which the country’s agricultural sector depends. This poses a risk to financial institutions investing in the Brazilian economy and the agribusiness sector. Building on insights from its previous Food Giants & Fertiliser Risk report, Planet Tracker highlights significant opportunities for investors to support a transition to regenerative agriculture and other measures to reduce synthetic fertiliser use in Brazil.

The analysis estimates that synthetic fertiliser-related emissions could increase by 89% by 2050 compared to 2021 if domestic fertiliser production increases under the PNF. Increasing domestic synthetic fertiliser production means that Brazil would have to report the associated GHG emissions, which are currently excluded when fertiliser is produced abroad. This would make it more difficult for Brazil to achieve its net-zero ambitions, resulting in increased fertiliser-related pollution, harming human health, ecosystems, and the country’s economy.

An alternative vision for Brazil’s agriculture sector

Planet Tracker finds that Brazil’s synthetic fertiliser-linked GHG emissions could be reduced by up to 86% in 2050 if demand for synthetic fertiliser decreases by 60% in 2050 compared to a 2021 baseline.

Regenerative agriculture techniques are a key way of reducing the demand for synthetic fertiliser, reducing GHG emissions by 46 Mt CO2e by 2050, through the use of organic fertiliser, intercropping and crop rotation with nitrogen fixing plants and other techniques to improve soil health. Bio-inoculants (nitrogen-fixing bacteria applied to crop seeds) are another significant fertiliser demand reduction measure, saving 13 Mt of CO2e if applied at scale. Reducing synthetic fertiliser use would not only decrease fertiliser-related water and air pollution but also significantly cut input costs for farmers.

How financial institutions can affect change

• Sovereign bond investors should:
  • Engage with the Brazilian government and the Ministries of Agriculture and of the Environment to submit an updated National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan, aligned with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, before the end of June 2025, which is
  • Engage with the Ministry of the Economy – Industry, Foreign Trade and Services to update the PNF to include a target to reduce synthetic fertiliser use by 20% by 2030, and by at least 70% by 2050.
    

• Financial institutions should:
  • Engage with Brazilian food producers and their international customers to include Scope 1 and 3 fertiliser emissions in their GHG emissions disclosures and net zero plans and targets by 2026.
  • Commit to channel 20% of direct and indirect funding for agricultural production to support regenerative agriculture practices by 2030.

Emma Amadi, Senior Research Analyst, Planet Tracker

“The overuse of synthetic fertiliser in Brazil poses significant nature and climate risks to the country’s agricultural sector and the economy more broadly. This report calls on financial institutions to support the transition to a more sustainable and regenerative agricultural system to reduce synthetic fertiliser use and improve the health of the nation's ecosystems and citizens.”

About Planet Tracker

Planet Tracker is an award-winning non-profit financial think tank aligning capital markets with planetary boundaries. Created with the vision of a financial system that is fully aligned with a net-zero, resilient, nature positive, and just economy well before 2050, Planet Tracker generates break-through analytics that reveal both the role of capital markets in the degradation of our ecosystem and show the opportunities of transitioning to a zero-carbon, nature positive economy.