New Mythbusting Grocery Sentiment Index Reveals Positive Outlook for US Shopper Spending in Global Grocery Industry

AI-powered insights across 64 million households defy economic fears, revealing steady grocery spending

PALO ALTO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Widespread fears of weakening consumer spending in the grocery industry appear to be overblown, according to insights from the new Grocery Sentiment Index (GSI) developed by SymphonyAI. The innovative AI-powered analytics tool uses advanced AI to analyze what consumers actually do based on behaviors in their grocery shopping, as well as forecasting shopping trends for the coming quarter.

Amid whiplash tariff and market index swings, shoppers claim to be tightening their belts – yet primary data from more than 64 million households and 627 million grocery transactions in the US, Europe, and Asia proves that shoppers are holding steady or even increasing grocery spending. Consumers under economic stress who cut back on discretionary spending like dining out and traveling often find refuge in the comfort of grocery visits and enjoying meals at home, much as they did during COVID.

Breakthrough AI Insights – and Predictions

Built on the premise that shoppers’ actions speak louder than words, the GSI – the first-ever AI-powered index that deciphers shopper behavior and forecasts trends with unmatched precision – deep-dives into shopper data from January 2022 through March 2025. By analyzing first-quarter spending across nearly 70 million households and over 600 million transactions, this powerhouse tool offers a crystal-clear view into the future of consumer habits.

The index applies analytical and predictive AI models for a pulse check using customer-first insights from loyalty card data on grocery transactions. SymphonyAI proprietary predictive AI models analyze top sales drivers and emerging trends to project shoppers’ purchasing trajectory for the coming quarter, generating actionable insights so grocers and their key suppliers can make strategic decisions regarding shopper loyalty, margins, trip frequency, promotional effectiveness, and sales to meet shoppers where they’re going.

The Outlook: Upside for Grocers Spells Compelling Business Opportunity

“Grocers should feel good about the outlook for second-quarter shopper behavior,” said Josh McCann, head of HQ client delivery and analytics for SymphonyAI’s retail-CPG division. “Looking ahead, the GSI utilizes more than 200 weighted behavior metrics to predict improving trends for Europe and Asia, as shoppers move from Poor to Neutral sentiment zones, while the US shoppers move toward the top end of the Neutral zone. It’s an opportunity for grocers in all three geographies to deploy aggressive, targeted strategies to engage shoppers through their most relevant behavioral needs – and drive powerful bottom-line impact.” Shopper sentiment was binned into five ranges: Very Good, Good, Neutral, Poor, and Very Poor.

“Shoppers’ future spending demonstrably differs from their stated intentions, and the GSI leverages SymphonyAI’s vast real-world data and advanced AI technology to uncover previously undetectable shopper insights from large datasets to make accurate predictions,” said Laetitia Berthier, head of EMEA Customer and Category Solutions Consulting in the SymphonyAI retail-CPG division. “SymphonyAI grocery and CPG customers can use the CINDE Connected Retail Platform to take targeted actions to capitalize on the GSI analysis and predictions. We continually expand the art of the possible with CINDE, and our grocery customers worldwide benefit by staying a step ahead of shoppers and competitors with unprecedented AI insights.”

The GSI and CINDE Connected Retail Platform help grocers truly understand shopper behavior and what specific actions to take on which categories and even specific products, including where price matters, where brand matters, and which package sizes matter to which shoppers. McCann and Berthier discuss the index findings and predictions in more detail in a briefing on the Grocery Sentiment Index, and the full report will be available following the briefing.

About SymphonyAI

SymphonyAI is a leading enterprise AI SaaS company for digital transformation across the most critical and resilient growth verticals, including retail, consumer packaged goods, financial services, manufacturing, media, and IT/enterprise service management. SymphonyAI verticals have many leading enterprises as clients. Since its founding in 2017, SymphonyAI has grown rapidly to 3,000 talented leaders, data scientists, and other professionals. A 2024 Microsoft Partner of the Year for Business Transformation – AI Innovation, SymphonyAI is a SAIGroup company, backed by a $1 billion commitment from successful entrepreneur and philanthropist Dr. Romesh Wadhwani. Learn more at www.symphonyai.com.