Best’s Commentary: Wildfires Intensify Troubles in California’s Property Insurance Market

OLDWICK, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--In a new commentary, AM Best notes that policyholders in California had increasingly turned to the state’s insurer of last resort and nonadmitted market for homeowners’ coverage prior to the wildfires due to reduced availability from primary insurers.

The Best’s Commentary, “California Wildfires: Multiple Credit Negative Impacts for Insurers,” notes that given heightened losses in recent years owing to a greater frequency of severe wildfire events, many voluntary market insurers in the state reassessed geographic diversification in their homeowners’ portfolios and limited their appetite for providing coverage in affected areas, sending policyholders to look elsewhere for coverage. As a result, surplus lines insurers have become more prevalent in California’s homeowners’ insurance market.

“Although comparatively modest, the percentage of homeowners’ insurance premium written by surplus lines insurers has increased by nearly 10 times over the last decade with premium surpassing the $2 billion mark for the first time in 2023,” said David Blades, associate director, Industry Research and Analytics, AM Best. “This activity reflects a substantial amount of premium leaving the admitted market and finding coverage in the nonadmitted market.”

These market shifts also have led to a 276% increase in policies in the California FAIR Plan from 2018 through 2024, based on FAIR Plan data for fiscal years ending Sept. 30. The underwriting performance of the FAIR Plan, and the insurers supporting it, was decidedly unfavorable from 2018 through 2021, predominantly from wildfires. California property insurance results turned around noticeably in 2022 and 2023, but the January wildfires will have a significantly negative impact on 2025 results.

“The large losses due to the wildfires are likely to lead to pricing increases in reinsurance for the FAIR Plan,” said Christopher Graham, senior industry analyst, Industry Research and Analytics, AM Best. “Any impact on the broader property catastrophe reinsurance market remains to be seen, but pricing and terms of reinsurance for the California FAIR Plan will be critical to ensure the plan is adequately funded and able to properly support policyholders.”

The commentary also notes that catastrophe bonds have experienced negative secondary market price movement due to potential exposure to the wildfires. Estimates are changing almost daily, but wildfire losses have driven bond prices down by 10-20% on average.

Additionally, several lawsuits have already been filed against Southern California Edison, claiming its negligence started the Eaton Fire. Primary insurers may still file their own lawsuits, subrogating against the energy companies. Any successful negligence claim will likely result in liability claims paid by the energy companies’ insurers. While this would benefit the state’s property insurers, it may be years before they receive any recoveries.

To access the full copy of this commentary, please visit http://www3.ambest.com/bestweek/purchase.asp?record_code=351056.

AM Best is a global credit rating agency, news publisher and data analytics provider specializing in the insurance industry. Headquartered in the United States, the company does business in over 100 countries with regional offices in London, Amsterdam, Dubai, Hong Kong, Singapore and Mexico City. For more information, visit www.ambest.com.

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