The Construction Intelligence Center (CIC) has revised upwards its forecast for growth in the global construction industry.
In line with improved performance in some major markets and a brighter outlook for the global economy, the CIC now expects the pace of expansion in the global construction industry to average 3.7% a year over the forecast period (2018-2022), compared with 3.6% in the December 2017 forecast update.
In real value terms (measured at constant 2017 prices and US$ exchange rates), global construction output is forecast to rise to US$12.4 trillion in 2022 from US$10.4 trillion in 2017.
The global economy will continue to post healthy rates of growth in 2018-2019, and investor confidence will remain buoyant. The expected tightening in monetary policy in major markets in 2018 will start to push up the cost of borrowing, but with interest rates generally at or near historical lows, this tightening process is not expected to have a major impact on construction activity during the early part of the forecast period.
- The faster pace of growth in global construction output in 2018 is being driven primarily by the pickup in advanced economies, with growth in these markets combined rising to 2.7% over the year. This is primarily due to the improvement expected in construction output in the US, following a sluggish outturn in 2017.
- The Asia-Pacific region will continue to account for the largest share of the global construction industry, given that it includes the large markets of China, Japan and India. The pace of growth will slow, however, given the projected slowdown in China's construction industry.
- Construction activity is gathering momentum across Western Europe. The region's output will expand by 2.5% a year on average in 2018-2022, improving on the sluggish growth of 1.3% in 2013-2017.
- Sub-Saharan Africa will be the fastest growing region in 2018-2022, with rapid expansion in Ethiopia's infrastructure development, with a number of other countries in Eastern Africa experiencing high rates of growth.
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