Arch Mortgage Insurance Releases Spring Edition of Housing and Mortgage Market Review

Housing Construction Projected to Increase, Housing Appreciation Risk Index Little Changed

WALNUT CREEK, Calif.--()--Arch Mortgage Insurance Company (“Arch MI”), a subsidiary of Arch Capital Group Ltd., announced today that it has released the latest quarterly edition of The Housing and Mortgage Market Review. The Spring 2014 report presents a U.S. housing market that continues to recover from the Great Recession, a relatively stable Housing Appreciation Risk Index(SM) and affordability that remains favorable but has been negatively impacted by higher mortgage rates and home prices.

“We are very pleased to share Arch MI’s Housing & Mortgage Market Review with the marketplace,” said David Gansberg, Arch MI’s President and Chief Executive Officer. “As a private mortgage insurance company, Arch MI believes in strengthening the nation’s housing market by bringing private capital back into the mortgage finance system.”

The Housing & Mortgage Market Review projects a significant acceleration in housing starts in both 2014 and 2015 due to constrained supply, combined with both normal and pent-up demand from demographic growth. Housing starts are forecast to increase 25% per year in 2014 and 2015 after rising 18% in 2013.

Arch MI’s proprietary Housing Appreciation Risk Index(SM), which estimates the probability of a region’s home prices being lower two years in the future, is little changed from the last quarter’s report. Overall, the scores remain near post-recession lows, with only a few of the hardest-hit states, including parts of Florida, Arizona, Nevada, California and the Northeast, remaining risker than the rest of the nation. While these states have the highest risk scores, they are also the states that have improved the most over the past year.

The quarterly report, authored by Arch MI’s Senior Director of Economics and Modeling, Ralph DeFranco, analyzes key regional and national market data. “Today’s housing market shows continued recovery from the recession,” said Mr. DeFranco. “The projected increase in housing starts in 2014 and 2015 is good news for the overall economy, since each new single-family housing start adds about 4 jobs to the economy for a year, while each new multi-family units adds 2 jobs.”

A complete copy of The Housing & Mortgage Market ReviewSpring 2014 and Appendix that provides data for all 384 U.S. MSAs is available at


Arch Capital acquired CMG Mortgage Insurance Company (CMG MI) and the mortgage insurance operating platform of PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. on January 30, 2014. In connection with the acquisition, CMG MI changed its name to Arch Mortgage Insurance Company (Arch MI) in its state of domicile, Wisconsin. Arch MI has obtained, or is the process of obtaining, approval of the name change in all other applicable jurisdictions. Arch MI is Arch Capital Group Ltd.’s flagship U.S. mortgage insurer.

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The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a "safe harbor" for forward−looking statements. This release or any other written or oral statements made by or on behalf of Arch MI, Arch Capital Group Ltd. or its subsidiaries may include forward−looking statements, which reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance. All statements other than statements of historical fact included in or incorporated by reference in this release are forward−looking statements.

Forward−looking statements can generally be identified by the use of forward−looking terminology such as "may," "will," "expect," "intend," "estimate," "anticipate," "believe" or "continue" or their negative or variations or similar terminology. Forward−looking statements involve our current assessment of risks and uncertainties. Actual events and results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. A non-exclusive list of the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in such forward-looking statements includes the following: adverse general economic and market conditions; increased competition; pricing and policy term trends; fluctuations in the actions of rating agencies and our ability to maintain and improve our ratings; investment performance; the loss of key personnel; the adequacy of our loss reserves, severity and/or frequency of losses, greater than expected loss ratios and adverse development on claim and/or claim expense liabilities; greater frequency or severity of unpredictable natural and man-made catastrophic events; the impact of acts of terrorism and acts of war; changes in regulations and/or tax laws in the United States or elsewhere; our ability to successfully integrate, establish and maintain operating procedures as well as integrate the businesses we have acquired or may acquire into the existing operations; changes in accounting principles or policies; material differences between actual and expected assessments for guaranty funds and mandatory pooling arrangements; availability and cost to us of reinsurance to manage our gross and net exposures; the failure of others to meet their obligations to us; and other factors identified in our filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The foregoing review of important factors should not be construed as exhaustive and should be read in conjunction with other cautionary statements that are included herein or elsewhere. All subsequent written and oral forward−looking statements attributable to us or persons acting on our behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward−looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.


Arch Mortgage Insurance Company
Bill Horning, 925-658-6193


Arch Mortgage Insurance Company
Bill Horning, 925-658-6193