Northern Trust Universe Data: Global Markets Deliver Steady Fourth Quarter Gains to U.S. Institutional Investors

CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Global markets posted steady gains for institutional investors in the fourth quarter of 2025, as slowing inflation eased concerns over the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, weak employment statistics, and investor skepticism around elevated artificial intelligence (AI) valuations. The Northern Trust All Funds Over $100 Million plan universe had a median return of 2.1% for the quarter and finished the year up 13.1%.

The Northern Trust Universe tracks the performance of 365 large U.S. institutional investment plans, with a combined asset value of more than $1.4 trillion, which subscribe to performance measurement services as part of Northern Trust's asset servicing offerings.

Performance varied across plan types, with the Northern Trust Corporate (ERISA) universe returning 1.3% at the median for the quarter while the Northern Trust Public Funds universe median return was 1.9% and the Northern Trust Foundation and Endowment (F&E) universe produced a 2.5% median return.

U.S. equity markets delivered solid gains, supported by strong third‑quarter corporate earnings and robust U.S. GDP growth. The Northern Trust US Equity program universe posted a 2.4% median return for the quarter and 15% for the year, while the Northern Trust Non-US Equity program universe had a median return of 3.8% in the quarter.

John Turney, global head of Total Portfolio Solutions at Northern Trust Asset Servicing, said: “These fourth quarter results reflect how institutional investors continue to navigate complex economic cross‑currents with discipline and strategic focus. As inflation moderates and policy signals evolve, diversified portfolios remain well positioned to capture opportunities while managing long‑term risk exposures.”

Fixed income returns were modest but positive. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and again in December, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.50%–3.75%. Short‑term yields fell slightly, while long‑term yields edged higher. Markets remain uncertain about the Fed’s next steps, with expectations for a pause through mid‑2026. Against this backdrop, the Northern Trust US Fixed Income program universe returned 1.1% in the fourth quarter.

ERISA plan one, three, and five-year median returns were 11.1%, 8.0%, and 2.3%, respectively. In the Northern Trust ERISA plan universe, the largest median allocation remains U.S. fixed income at 49.7%, however the allocation has been declining, driven by relative underperformance.

Public Funds universe median returns for the one, three, and five-year periods stood at 13.1%, 10.7%, and 7.1%, respectively. U.S. equity represents the largest allocation at 26.9%, followed closely by U.S. fixed income at 23.6%. Private equity allocations continue to rise, now reaching 14.6%.

In the Foundations & Endowments universe, median one, three, and five-year returns were 13.6%, 12.2%, and 8.1%, respectively. These institutions remain heavily invested in private assets, with a median private equity allocation of 22.0%.

Results as of December 31, 2025:
	4th Qtr	1Yr	3Yr	5Yr
ERISA	1.3%	11.1%	8.0%	2.3%
Public Funds	1.9%	13.1%	10.7%	7.1%
Foundations & Endowments	2.5%	13.6%	12.2%	8.1%

About Northern Trust

Northern Trust Corporation (Nasdaq: NTRS) is a leading provider of wealth management, asset servicing, asset management and banking services to corporations, institutions, affluent families and individuals. Founded in Chicago in 1889, Northern Trust has a global presence with offices in 24 U.S. states and Washington, D.C., and across 22 locations in Canada, Europe, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region. As of December 31, 2025, Northern Trust had assets under custody/administration of US$18.7 trillion, and assets under management of US$1.8 trillion. For more than 135 years, Northern Trust has earned distinction as an industry leader for exceptional service, financial expertise, integrity and innovation. Visit us on northerntrust.com. Follow us on Instagram @northerntrustcompany or Northern Trust on LinkedIn.

Northern Trust Corporation, Head Office: 50 South La Salle Street, Chicago, Illinois 60603 U.S.A., incorporated with limited liability in the U.S. Global legal and regulatory information can be found at https://www.northerntrust.com/terms-and-conditions.