Smaller Markets Outperform as U.S. Competitiveness Shifts in 2025, New Area Development–Chmura Rankings Show

New analysis highlights rising momentum in small and mid-size metros as workforce readiness and cost discipline reshape site selection

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--A new national analysis from Area Development and Chmura Economics & Analytics reveals a fundamental shift in the U.S. map of competitiveness: smaller and mid-size markets are increasingly outperforming major metros on the metrics that matter most to corporate expansion.

The 2025 Leading Metro Locations rankings evaluate hundreds of U.S. metropolitan and micropolitan areas using Chmura’s data-driven model, which equally weights Prime Workforce and Economic Strength. The results show that while large metros remain economic anchors, growth momentum and differentiation are increasingly concentrated in small and medium markets with agile labor forces, lower operating costs, and faster development timelines.

“Scale alone is no longer the decisive factor in competitiveness,” said Chris Chmura, founder and CEO of Chmura Economics & Analytics. “The strongest performers are the regions aligning workforce readiness, affordability, and quality of place — not simply population size.”

Key Findings from the 2025 Rankings Include:

• Smaller markets show wider performance spreads, indicating greater differentiation and opportunity compared to large metros, where scores increasingly cluster.
• Medium and small metros dominate top rankings, particularly across the Mountain West, Southwest, and parts of the Midwest and South Atlantic.
• Workforce quality is a leading differentiator, with many top-ranked small markets posting strong prime-age participation, wage growth, and alignment with advanced industries.
• Mega metros remain important, but face diminishing returns from scale alone as cost pressures and infrastructure constraints grow.

The rankings introduce updated market groupings — Mega, Large, Medium, and Small — to better reflect how companies now evaluate sites in practice. The analysis underscores a growing preference among manufacturers, logistics operators, and corporate real estate teams for markets that can translate workforce strength into measurable economic performance quickly.

“Companies are casting a wider net than ever before,” said Area Development Editor Andy Greiner. “What the data shows is that many small and mid-size markets are no longer competing on aspiration — they’re competing on execution.”

Implications for Corporate Decision-Makers

For site selectors and executives planning expansions in 2026 and beyond, the findings reinforce a clear message: competitive advantage is increasingly defined by workforce preparedness, incentive efficiency, and speed to operation, rather than sheer scale.

Markets that can combine targeted incentives, infrastructure readiness, and customized talent pipelines are closing the gap with — and in many cases surpassing — traditional large-metro competitors.

The full 2025 Leading Metro and Micro Locations feature, including detailed rankings, methodology, and regional analysis, appears in the latest issue of Area Development magazine and on AreaDevelopment.com.

About Area Development
Area Development is the leading publication for corporate executives, site selectors, and economic development professionals involved in facility location, expansion, and investment strategy.

About Chmura Economics & Analytics
Chmura Economics & Analytics provides labor market intelligence, economic modeling, and data-driven insights used by governments, consultants, and corporate decision-makers worldwide.