UK Mortgage Arrears Growth Stalls for First Time Since 2022

• Overall UK arrears rate unchanged in Q1 2025
• Growth in residential arrears rate offset by improvements in buy-to-let
• New Originations increase ahead of Stamp Duty changes

LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Pepper Advantage, a global credit intelligence company, today published the latest data on its portfolio of over 100,000 UK residential mortgages. The Q1 2025 data reveals that the overall arrears* growth rate across residential and buy-to-let (BTL) mortgages was 0.0%, primarily driven by improvement in the buy-to-let market.

The data, which consolidates and analyses data from across the UK, shows that BTL arrears growth fell for the first time since 2021, decreasing by 0.1% after a prolonged period of stress. However, the rate of residential arrears growth increased for the second consecutive quarter, growing by 0.3%.

Key finding across product areas include:

• Buy-to-Let: The drop in the arrears rate in Q1 2025 followed 12 consecutive quarters of arrears rate growth. Despite improvement in the first quarter, the overall rate of BTL arrears is 23.4% higher than in Q1 2024, reflecting the impact of high rates and margin pressure on UK landlords.
• Residential: The percentage of residential mortgages in arrears increased by 0.3% in Q1 2025, following 2.4% growth in Q4 2024. However, the year-on-year growth rate for the percentage of residential mortgages in arrears is relatively low at 1.2%.
• Originations**: New originations rose 4.7% in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024, driven by a steep increase in March ahead of the Stamp Duty rise.
• North-South divide: Southern regions (Greater London, the South East and South West), as well as the East Midlands and Yorkshire, posted arrears rate growth. In contrast, Scotland, the North East, North West, Wales, and West Midlands all recorded a drop in their arrears rates.

Fraser Gemmell, CEO of Pepper Advantage, said: “Zero arrears rate growth for the first time since the cost-of-living crisis began is welcome news, especially with the improvement in the BTL market. However, if we look closely at the data, there are still areas of concern – particularly several consecutive quarters of arrears rate growth across London and the South East, where housing costs are highest.”

“Looking ahead, clouds appear to be gathering over the global economy. The risks of economic fallout from the trade war could prompt the Bank of England to follow the ECB and cut rates, potentially providing some relief. The prospect of higher inflation fuelled by disrupted supply chains, however, could unleash cost pressures that once again put financial strain on borrowers. We should not underestimate the potential impact of a challenging macroeconomic outlook and must remain prepared for whatever lies ahead.”

Pepper Advantage’s UK Credit Intelligence report is published quarterly – the full Q1 2025 report is available here and the full Q4 2024 report here.

*Mortgages in arrears are defined as those that are 30+ days delinquent in payment.

**Pepper Advantage manages organic origination for 10 UK originators, 80% of which are capital markets funded.

About Pepper Advantage

Pepper Advantage is a global credit intelligence company that offers a range of data led and credit management services via a technology platform that spans across Asia, Europe, and the United Kingdom. The company, with $55 billion (USD) assets under management, operates in multiple asset classes including residential and commercial mortgages, real estate, SME loans, asset financing and leasing, auto and consumer loans, credit cards, retail finance and BNPL, in addition to offering outsourced operational support services to both financial and non-financial clients. It helps investors, financial institutions, fintechs, and banks manage their credit portfolios, reducing the cost and complexities of systems and supporting new non-bank lending, with a particular focus on clients whose customers are underserved by traditional mainstream lenders.

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