KBRA Releases Research – 2024 CMBS Loan Maturities: Payoff Rates Decrease

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--KBRA releases a report on payoff rates of 2024 loan maturities in U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). Just over 85% of U.S. CMBS loans maturing in 2024 successfully refinanced, a notable decrease from the 94% of maturing loans paid off in 2023 (see 2023 CMBS Loan Maturities: Better by Count). The payoff percentage by loan balance also declined, albeit by a smaller margin, dropping to 66.6% from 71.8%. This trend, consistent with last year, suggests that larger loans continue to face greater refinancing challenges compared to smaller loans.

This KBRA report highlights the refinancing experience of $56.2 billion in loans from conduit and single-asset single borrower (SASB) CMBS transactions that matured in 2024. While the majority refinanced, the decline in the refinance rate amid record CMBS issuance underscores the challenges facing the commercial real estate (CRE) market. In 2024, issuance surpassed $100 billion—a milestone reached only once since the global financial crisis (GFC). However, CRE property values continued to decline for much of the year, and the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, only beginning to implement cuts in September.

2024 CMBS loan maturities by the numbers:

• $56.2 billion matured in 2024 across 1,807 loans.
• 85.6% by loan count and 66.6% by balance paid off as of year-end.
• Conduit experienced a payoff rate of 86.1% by count and 69.1% by balance, whereas SASB only reached 67.9% and 63.4%, respectively.
• 41.2% of the office maturities did not pay off (70.4% by balance) versus 20.0% (37.5%), 11.7% (18.7%), and 8.8% (14.2%) for mixed-use, retail, and lodging, respectively. For multifamily loans, although only 5.8% of maturities by loan count failed to pay off, these loans represented a substantial 41.9% of the total maturing multifamily loan balance.
• Only 10% (32.3% by balance) of the non-paid off loans had been extended by year-end compared to 22.3% (54.9%) experienced in 2023 over the same respective period.

As market dynamics evolve over 2025 and 2026, maturing loan payoffs in 2024 may provide valuable insights into the $144.7 billion in loans set to mature over the next two years, which are further explored in this report.

Click here to view the report.

Related Publications

• CMBS Trend Watch: December 2024
• CMBS Loan Performance Trends: December 2024
• 2025 CMBS Sector Outlook: Twin Peaks?
• Multifamily Performance—Conduit Distress Increases as Freddie Mac Holds the Line

About KBRA

KBRA is a full-service credit rating agency registered in the U.S., the EU, and the UK, and is designated to provide structured finance ratings in Canada. KBRA’s ratings can be used by investors for regulatory capital purposes in multiple jurisdictions.

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