Network Operator Capex Forecast 4Q 2024 - Telco Flatlines But GenAI-Driven Data Center Hype Drives Comms Capex Above $600B In 2024; Webscale Will Lead Market By 2028 - ResearchAndMarkets.com

DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The "Network Operator Capex Forecast: 4Q24 Edition" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.

This forecast presents the latest projections for the network operator market, spanning telecommunications operators (telcos), webscalers, and carrier-neutral network operators (CNNOs). The forecast is based on quarterly coverage of over 175 operators, and reflects market realities through the end of 3Q24. The forecast includes revenues, capex and employee totals for all segments, and additional metrics for each individual segment.

In 2024, the three operator groups are expected to account for $4.48 trillion (T) in revenues (2023: $4.27T), $612 billion (B) in capex (2023: $548B), and 8.86 million (M) employees (2023: 8.81M). This report provides 2011-23 actuals and projections through 2028, and includes projections from the most recent full forecast (12/23) for reference.

Key Highlights of the report:

Vendor addressable market:

Tech vendors sell various products and services to each of the three operator segments tracked in this forecast - everything from GPU server chips to fiber optic splice enclosures to radio antennas to network construction to cloud software. Their addressable market is directly related to capex, which captures most external technology purchases including a large portion of software & services expenses. In 2011, the starting point of our coverage, total three segment capex was $336 billion, 90% of which was telco.

By 2028, three segment capex will reach $638 billion, and telco will account for only 44% of the total. In the intervening years, an important segment of third-party neutral operators of network capacity and space has evolved; CNNO capex was just $6B in 2011 but will hit about $54B by 2028. But the real story of the market is webscale: capex spend by webscalers has surged multiple times as these tech companies innovate, scale and capture more of the world's digital value. In 2011, webscale capex was $29B, or 8% of the comms operator market. In 2023, it reached $193B (35% of total), and AI/GenAI demand is currently fueling it through another up cycle, which will push webscale to about $303B by 2028, or 48% of total (and more than telco for the first time).

Telco

This report includes region- and country-level projections for the telecommunications network operator (TNO, or telco) market. These projections are based upon the publisher's quarterly coverage of 140 telcos across the globe, spanning 1Q11 through 2Q24. For 2024, we expect global telco revenues of $1.77 trillion (flat versus 2023), capex of $297B (down 5% YoY), and employees of 4.457 million (down 1.2% YoY). Labor costs per employee in 2024 will be about $60.8K, up from $58.7K in 2023.

Webscale

This report includes projections for the growth and development of the webscale network operator (WNO, or webscale) market. The projections are based on our quarterly coverage of 21 webscalers, spanning 1Q11-2Q24, and they break out China from the rest of the globe. For 2024, we expect global webscale revenues of $2.58 trillion, up 9% YoY, $311B in R&D spending (+6% YoY), $267 billion in capex (+39% YoY), and 4.284 million employees (+2.4% YoY). Our forecast for webscale capex has significantly increased since the last update in late 2023. However, the unusual spike in capex underway in 2024 will be followed by two years of decline.

Carrier-neutral

This report also includes projections for the growth and development of the carrier-neutral network operator (CNNO) market. The CNNO market is the smallest of three operator segments tracked by the publisher, but CNNOs play a crucial, complementary role in the communications sector and own and operate a large portion of the world's cell towers, data centers, and fiber networks.

CNNO projections are based upon quarterly tracking of 47 CNNOs across the globe. The CNNO tracking is focused on publicly traded companies but we also attempt to capture the significant private equity-led activity in this sector. In 2024, we expect CNNO revenues to total about $125B (+4% YoY), capex of $48B (+16% YoY), and about 120K employees (flat YoY). CNNOs' asset base includes over 1,500 data centers, 3.3 million cell towers, and 1.1 million fiber route miles.

Key Topics Covered:

• Report Highlights
• Summary
• Network Operator Totals
• Telco - Regional Splits
• Webscale
• Carrier-neutral (CNNO)
• Spending outlook for top operators

Companies Featured

• 21Vianet
• A1 Telekom Austria
• Advanced Info Service (AIS)
• Airtel
• Alibaba
• Alphabet
• Altice Europe
• Altice USA
• Amazon
• America Movil
• American Tower
• Apple
• AT&T
• Axiata
• Axtel
• Baidu
• Balitower
• Batelco
• BCE
• Bezeq Israel
• Bharti Infratel
• Bouygues Telecom
• BSNL
• BT
• Cable ONE, Inc.
• Cell C
• Cellcom Israel
• Cellnex
• CenturyLink
• Charter Communications
• China Broadcasting Network
• China Mobile
• China Telecom
• China Tower
• China Unicom
• ChinData
• Chorus Limited
• Chunghwa Telecom
• Cincinatti Bell
• CK Hutchison
• Cogeco
• Cogent
• Cognizant
• Comcast
• Consolidated Communications
• Crown Castle
• Cyfrowy Polsat
• CyrusOne
• Cyxtera
• DEN Networks Limited
• Deutsche Telekom
• Digi Communications
• Digital Realty
• DigitalBridge
• Dish Network
• Dish TV India Limited
• Du
• eBay
• EI Towers
• Elisa
• Entel
• Equinix
• Etisalat
• Far EasTone Telecommunications Co., Ltd.
• Frontier Communications
• Fujitsu
• GDS Data Centers
• Globe Telecom
• Grupo Clarin
• Grupo Televisa
• GTL Infrastructure
• Hathway Cable & Datacom Limited
• Helios Towers
• HPE
• IBM
• IBS Towers
• IHS Towers
• Iliad SA
• Internap
• Inwit
• JD.COM
• KDDI
• Keppel DC REIT
• KPN
• KT
• Level 3
• LG Uplus
• Liberty Global
• M1
• Maroc Telecom
• Masmovil
• Maxis Berhad
• Megafon
• Meta (FB)
• Microsoft
• Millicom
• Mobile Telesystems
• MTN Group
• MTNL
• NBN Australia
• NEXTDC
• NTT
• Oi
• Omantel
• Ooredoo
• Oracle
• Orange
• PCCW
• PLDT
• Proximus
• QTS Realty
• Quebecor Telecommunications
• Rakuten
• Reliance Communications Limited
• Reliance Jio
• Rogers
• Rostelecom
• Safaricom Limited
• SAP
• Sasktel
• SBA Communications
• Shaw
• Singtel
• SITI Networks Limited
• SK Telecom
• SmarTone
• SMN (Protelindo)
• SoftBank
• Spark New Zealand Limited
• StarHub
• STC (Saudi Telecom)
• Summit Digitel
• Sunevision
• Superloop
• Swisscom
• Switch
• Taiwan Mobile
• Tata Communications
• Tata Teleservices
• TDC
• TDF Infrastructure/Arcus
• TDS
• Tele2 AB
• Telecom Argentina
• Telecom Egypt
• Telecom Italia
• Telefonica
• Telekom Malaysia Berhad
• Telenor
• Telesites
• Telia
• Telkom Indonesia
• Telkom SA
• Telstra
• Telus
• Tencent
• Thaicom
• Tower Bersama
• TPG Telecom Limited
• True Corp
• Turk Telekom
• Turkcell
• Twitter
• Uniti Group
• Veon
• Verizon
• Vodafone
• Vodafone Idea Limited
• VodafoneZiggo
• Windstream
• Yandex
• Zain
• Zain KSA
• Zayo

For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/1etzed

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