KBRA Europe Releases Research — Europe’s Energy Crisis: Potential Impact of Russian Gas Supply Changes

DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--KBRA Europe (KBRA) releases research on the European energy crisis stemming from the war in Ukraine and subsequent economic sanctions against Russia. Energy prices have been elevated in recent months, and supply has recently come under threat. Gas in particular is in the spotlight, as Russia on 11 July began a temporary shutdown of its Nord Stream 1 pipeline for scheduled maintenance. Concerns are growing that Russian gas supply to Europe will not resume at optimum levels, leaving industries and governments scrambling.

The report examines the potential economic impact of this energy crisis, including implications if there were a full stoppage of Russian gas. At this juncture, Europe appears poised to be more resilient than many realise; however, the outlook is highly uncertain, and outcomes will depend on whether Europe can smoothly adjust to the energy shock.

Key Takeaways

• Addressing a complete shutdown of Russian gas requires significant infrastructure changes and Europe-wide coordination to support the most vulnerable countries such as Germany and Italy. Reducing reliance on Russian gas is within the realm of possibility, but challenges still exist in the short to medium term.
• KBRA conducted rough estimates on how a full stoppage of Russian gas could affect several European GDPs. This impact could range from as little as -0.1% in France to as much as -2.8% in Germany under a crisis scenario.
• The industrial sector would be most heavily impacted by losing gas supply, with the risk of large job losses in certain sectors, although this could be somewhat mitigated by government support.

Click here to view the report.

Related Publications

• Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Initial Contours of Credit Risk
• Global Inflation: More Thematic Impulses
• Sovereigns 2022 Outlook: New Challenges Ahead
• Battery Storage Funding Critical to Europe’s Energy Transition

About KBRA
KBRA is a full-service credit rating agency registered in the U.S., the EU and the UK, and is designated to provide structured finance ratings in Canada. KBRA’s ratings can be used by investors for regulatory capital purposes in multiple jurisdictions.