Global Pediatric Combination Vaccines Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2028 - Ability to Bundle Pediatric Vaccines is Key to Commercial Success -

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The pediatric combination market in the 9MM was estimated to be worth over $7.6bn in 2018; however, due to a reduction in the population receiving childhood vaccines and a lack of novel products entering the market, the market will be valued at just under $7.0bn by 2028. There are two key contributors to the decreasing number of children receiving routine vaccinations over the next decade; a slowing birth rate in most countries, and vaccine hesitancy.

Vaccine hesitancy throughout North America and Europe will prevent vaccination rates in these regions from significantly increasing over the next 10 years, and therefore represents a major barrier to growth in the pediatric combination vaccines market. The market for key pediatric combination vaccines in the nine major pharmaceutical markets (9MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, India, and Canada) will decline at a negative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.9% from 2018 to 2028, with a primary contributor to this contraction being the impact vaccine hesitancy has on childhood vaccination rates.

Well-organized immunization schedules for infants, children, and adolescents are the cornerstone of public health campaigns in most developed and developing countries. In particular, vaccines are the most effective method of protecting the general population and select groups of people against infectious diseases. In the US alone, childhood vaccines are estimated to prevent 14 million infections, avoid 33,000 premature deaths annually, and save $43bn in direct and indirect costs for each fully vaccinated US birth cohort.

Across the nine major pharmaceutical markets (9MM; US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Canada, India), routine childhood vaccination schedules include a series of vaccines that afford protection against approximately infectious diseases. The gradual introduction of combination vaccines which can protect against a greater number of these diseases has dramatically reduced the number of injections required, without sacrificing protective efficacy.

Although vaccine hesitancy has now been acknowledged as a major threat to public health by both national and international bodies, it is further indicated that initiatives developed to tackle the issue will only have a marginal impact. Therefore, only a very gradual improvement in childhood vaccination rates is anticipated over the next 10 years. Since vaccination rates are only expected to grow slowly it will not make up for the declining childhood populations in the 9MM.

As the first 6-in-1 childhood vaccine available in the US, Vaxelis is expected to garner significant patient share following its launch in 2020. Because of the benefits it can boast, such as reducing shot-burden for infants and increasing the likelihood of adhering to vaccination schedules, it is anticipated to account for almost a third of all DTaP vaccinations in the US by 2028. Sales of Vaxelis will achieve annual sales of $841M in the US by 2028. This is despite it only being viable for the first three doses of the primary DTaP vaccine series.

Vaxelis will drive market growth in the US, but this will be overshadowed by substantial contraction in the India pediatric combination vaccine market due to the launch of domestically developed and manufactured vaccines. The launch of domestically manufactured vaccines in India will be the cause of 9MM market contraction, because these vaccines will be available a substantial discount compared to rival foreign manufacturers.

Key Questions Answered

  • What routine pediatric vaccines are in clinical development?
  • How do the clinical and commercial attributes of pediatric vaccines in development compare with one another, and against existing vaccines?
  • What are the remaining unmet needs in routine pediatric vaccinations?
  • What drivers and barriers will affect routine pediatric vaccine sales in the 9MM over the forecast period?


  • Overview of vaccines used in routine immunization of infants and children for DTaP, Tdap, IPV, HBV, Hib, HAV, MMR, varicella, rotavirus, and Japanese encephalitis.
  • Topline pediatric vaccine market revenue from 2018-2028. Annual cost of therapy (ACOT) and major pipeline product sales in this forecast period are included.
  • Key topics covered include currently available vaccines, unmet needs and opportunities, and the drivers and barriers affecting pediatric vaccine sales in the 9MM.
  • Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data split across different phases, emerging novel trends under development, and detailed analysis of pipeline products.
  • Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global pediatric vaccines market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.

Key Topics Covered:

1 Table of Contents

1.1 List of Tables

1.2 List of Figures

2 Pediatric Combination Vaccines: Executive Summary

2.1 Domestically Produced Vaccines in India will drive 9MM Market Contraction

2.2 Ability to Bundle Pediatric Vaccines is Key to Commercial Success

2.3 Vaccine Hesitancy Is a Major Threat to Public Health

2.4 Domestic Suppliers to Dominate Future Market in India and Japan

2.5 What Do Physicians Think?

3 Introduction

3.1 Catalyst

3.2 Related Reports

3.3 Upcoming Related Reports

4 Overview of Vaccine Preventable Diseases

4.1 Summary

4.2 Diseases

4.2.1 Gram-Positive Bacterial Infections

4.2.2 Gram-Negative Bacterial Infections

4.2.3 RNA Viral Infections

4.2.4 DNA Viral Infections

4.3 Pathogens

5 Epidemiology

5.1 Disease Background

5.2 Risk Averted by Childhood Vaccinations

5.3 Global and Historical Trends

5.3.1 North America

5.3.2 Europe

5.3.3 Asia

5.4 Forecast Methodology

5.4.1 Sources

5.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods

5.4.3 Pediatric Vaccination Rates in the Total Population

5.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Pediatric Vaccines (2018-2028)

5.6 Discussion

5.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight

5.6.2 Limitations of Analysis

5.6.3 Strengths of Analysis

6 Immunization Recommendations and Schedules

6.1 Overview

6.2 US

6.3 5EU

6.4 Japan

6.5 India

6.6 Canada

7 Competitive Assessment

7.1 Overview

7.2 DTaP

7.3 MMR and Varicella

7.4 Rotavirus

7.5 Japanese Encephalitis

8 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment

8.1 Overview

8.2 Combatting Vaccine Hesitancy

8.3 Consistent Immunization Across Demographics

8.3.1 Age Groups

8.3.2 Rural Versus Urban

8.3.3 Regional Differences

8.4 Vaccines with Improved Safety, Duration of Protection, and Coverage

8.5 Expansion of Immunization Programs

9 Pipeline Assessment

10 Current and Future Players

10.1 Overview

10.2 Trends in Corporate Strategy

10.3 Company Profiles

10.3.1 GlaxoSmithKline

10.3.2 Merck & Co.

10.3.3 Sanofi Pasteur

10.3.4 Serum Institute of India

11 Market Outlook

11.1 Global Markets

11.1.1 Forecast

11.1.2 Drivers and Barriers - Global Issues

11.2 US

11.3 5EU

11.4 Japan

11.5 India

11.6 Canada

12 Appendix

12.1 Bibliography

12.2 Abbreviations

12.3 Methodology

12.3.1 Forecasting Methodology

12.3.2 Number of Vaccinations Administered

12.3.3 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class

12.3.4 Launch Dates

12.3.5 General Pricing Assumptions

12.3.6 Individual Drug Assumptions

12.3.7 Pricing of Pipeline Agents

12.4 Primary Research - KOLs Interviewed for This Report

12.4.1 KOLs

12.5 Primary Research - Prescriber Survey

12.6 About the Authors

12.6.1 Analyst

12.6.2 Therapy Area Director

12.6.3 Epidemiologist

12.6.4 Managing Epidemiologist

12.6.5 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

12.6.6 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy

Companies Mentioned

  • Merck & Co
  • Sanofi
  • GlaxoSmithKline
  • Serum Institute of India
  • Shantha Biotech
  • Takeda
  • Mitsubishi Tanabe
  • Cadila Healthcare
  • KM Biologics

For more information about this report visit

Laura Wood, Senior Press Manager
For E.S.T Office Hours Call 1-917-300-0470
For U.S./CAN Toll Free Call 1-800-526-8630
For GMT Office Hours Call +353-1-416-8900

Laura Wood, Senior Press Manager
For E.S.T Office Hours Call 1-917-300-0470
For U.S./CAN Toll Free Call 1-800-526-8630
For GMT Office Hours Call +353-1-416-8900