WASHINGTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Although business analysts continue to warn of a looming recession, new research released today suggests a potential downturn’s effect on the U.S. housing market may not be as damaging as many are predicting.
The findings stem from a 2019 U.S. Market Research report commissioned by the Window and Door Manufacturers Association (WDMA). To define the historical, current and forecast size of the U.S. market across construction-relevant categories, the study combined WDMA member data; research by the Farnsworth Group; and ancillary data collected from contractors, remodelers, builders and other industry professionals.
“This report highlights trends in the industry that reflect resilience and continued demand,” said Michael O’Brien, chief executive officer at WDMA. “The construction market has been steadily thriving for many years now, and this data does not point to protracted negative growth for the housing industry, or for shipments of windows, doors and skylights; rather, only a brief period of slowed growth prior to a rebound.”
Of the nearly 300 business economists polled earlier this year by the National Association for Business Economics, about 75 percent said they expect a recession by the end of 2021. Only 11 percent of the same group anticipate the U.S. will skirt a downturn between 2021 and 2022.
Yet the WDMA U.S. Market Research report reveals a bright spot during that timeframe, citing 2020 as the start of manageable decreases in the residential housing market’s rate of growth for both new starts and remodeling projects.
The study indicates housing starts in 2018 reached 1.25 million, a year-over-year increase of 4 percent. It shows a similar 5 percent uptick in residential remodeling projects that year — 12.6 million, comprising $194 billion in total expenditure.
Growth for both single- and multi-family housing starts is expected to level in 2019 and then diminish by 1.6 and 2.4 percent in 2020 and 2021, respectively. The increase in residential projects is expected to fall to 3.2 percent this year, followed by a period of somewhat static growth — 2.4 percent in 2020 and back to 3.2 percent in 2021, where it will generally remain through 2023. The report’s division-specific breakdown of window and door shipment statistics reveals similar trends.
The U.S. has seen more than 121 straight months of economic expansion since the end of the Great Recession a decade ago, which marks the longest-running growth period to date, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. The record-breaking uprun certainly makes a downturn seem inevitable, but O’Brien says the study uncovered encouraging indicators about its severity within the housing market.
“Recent years have included numerous successes for builders, remodelers, architects and other industry professionals,” O’Brien said. “We anticipate a continued demand for windows, doors and skylights, with this data making a compelling case for a bright future.”
The full WDMA 2019 U.S. Market Study for Window & Patio Door, Architectural & Entry Doors is available for purchase at www.wdma.com. For more information about the Farnsworth Group, visit www.f-w.com.
About the Window and Door Manufacturers Association
The Window and Door Manufacturers Association (WDMA) defines the standards of excellence in the residential and commercial window, door and skylight industry, and advances these standards among its industry members – the product manufacturers. With the help of some of the most knowledgeable experts in the space, WDMA drives the development, creation and implementation of key standards for the window, door and skylight industry. For more information about WDMA, please visit www.wdma.com.