DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The "Network Operator Forecast Through 2028" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.
This forecast report presents latest projections for the network operator market, spanning telecommunications operators (telcos), webscalers, and carrier-neutral network operators (CNNOs). The forecast is based on quarterly coverage of over 175 operators and includes revenues, capex and employee totals for all segments, and additional metrics for each individual segment.
In 2024, the three operator groups are expected to account for $4.38 trillion (T) in revenues (2022: $4.11T), $552 billion (B) in capex (2022: $563B), and 8.71 million (M) employees (2022: 8.88M). This report provides 2011-22 actuals and projections through 2028.
Key findings by network operator type
This forecast includes detailed breakouts for each of the three network operator types. Here is a summary of some of the key findings, by segment:
Telcos: Telecom is essentially a zero-growth industry. Specific countries and companies do grow from time to time, in part from market share shifts, the different timing of growth cycles, or M&A. But global telco revenues have hovered in a narrow range ($1.7-$1.9 trillion) since 2011, and this will likely remain true through 2028. In 2022, revenues were $1.78T, will fall a bit in 2023, then will grow an average annual rate of 1.4% to reach $1.93T by 2028.
Capex continues to vary with technology upgrade cycles (e.g. 5G) and government actions (e.g. newly issued spectrum, or rural fiber subsidies). In 2022, capex totaled $328B, or 18.1% of revenues; that's an annual all-time high capital intensity, for the coverage timeframe (2011-present). Capex will decline slightly through 2025, though, and then rise modestly again to reach $331B in 2028, which would be a 17.1% capital intensity. Software capex is growing more slowly than expected, and now likely to remain under 20% of total capex for the forecast period. Headcount in telecom is declining faster than expected, and now likely to fall below 4.2 million in 2028, from just under 4.6 million in 2022. Labor costs per head will revert to a growth trajectory in 2023, as telcos develop a more IT/software-centric workforce.
Webscalers: Growth from webscale has lifted the overall network operator market over the last decade. Webscalers surged during COVID, by all measures - revenues, capex, employment. Demand for data center chips and related gear also surged. The sector saw slower growth last year, though, and is cutting back on costs, capex, and headcount. In 2023, revenues will be about $2.32 trillion, up just 4% YoY for the second straight year. Revenues are expected to grow at a ~7% CAGR through 2028.
Webscale capex was $203B in 2022, a healthy increase from 2021; capex will be in a holding pattern through end of 2024 though, allowing for a couple years of capacity absorption, and start to grow again in 2025. During the lull, a larger portion of capex will be for Network/IT/software investments R&D spending by webscalers will remain high but fall from the record-breaking level of 2022 (12.0% of revenues), to a bit over 10% in 2028. As topline growth gets harder for webscalers, they will become more cost conscious and short-term oriented.
Carrier-neutral: The carrier-neutral sector remains tiny, with just $95B in 2022 revenues, but will grow to about $124B by 2028. Webscalers and telcos alike will both rely more on CNNOs over time for expansion of their data center, tower and fiber footprints. Telcos will continue to spin out portions of their infrastructure to third-parties - both traditional CNNOs (e.g. TASC Towers, which just bought 30,000 towers from Zain and Ooredoo), and joint ventures like Gigapower, the AT&T-Blackrock partnership.
Total CNNO capex for 2022 was $33B, and will grow to about $45B by 2028; a large chunk of the CNNO sector's expansion will be inorganic, though, via acquisition of existing assets from other sectors. By 2028, the CNNO sector will have under its management approximately 3.8 million cell towers (2022: 3.3M), 1,718 data centers (2022: 1,223), and 1.13M route miles of fiber (2022: 945K).
Companies Mentioned
- 21Vianet
- A1 Telekom Austria
- Airtel
- Alibaba
- Alphabet
- Altice Europe
- Altice USA
- Amazon
- Apple
- AT&T
- Axiata
- Axtel
- Baidu
- Balitower
- Batelco
- BCE
- BSNL
- BT
- Cable ONE, Inc.
- Cell C
- Cellcom Israel
- Cellnex
- CenturyLink
- Charter Communications
- China Mobile
- China Telecom
- China Tower
- China Unicom
- ChinData
- Chunghwa Telecom
- Cincinatti Bell
- CK Hutchison
- Cogeco
- Cogent
- Cognizant
- Comcast
- Crown Castle
- Cyfrowy Polsat
- CyrusOne
- Cyxtera
- DEN Networks Limited
- Deutsche Telekom
- Digi Communications
- Digital Realty
- DigitalBridge
- Dish Network
- Dish TV India Limited
- Du
- eBay
- EI Towers
- Elisa
- Entel
- Equinix
- Etisalat
- Fujitsu
- GDS Data Centers
- Globe Telecom
- Grupo Clarin
- Grupo Televisa
- GTL Infrastructure
- Helios Towers
- HPE
- IBM
- Iliad SA
- Internap
- Inwit
- JD.COM
- KDDI
- KPN
- KT
- Level 3
- LG Uplus
- Liberty Global
- M1
- Maroc Telecom
- Masmovil
- Maxis Berhad
- Megafon
- Meta (FB)
- Microsoft
- Millicom
- Mobile Telesystems
- MTN Group
- MTNL
- NBN Australia
- NEXTDC
- NTT
- Oi
- Omantel
- Ooredoo
- Oracle
- Orange
- PCCW
- PLDT
- Proximus
- QTS Realty
- Quebecor Telecommunications
- Rakuten
- Reliance Jio
- Rogers
- Rostelecom
- SAP
- Sasktel
- Shaw
- Singtel
- SITI Networks Limited
- SK Telecom
- SmarTone
- SoftBank
- StarHub
- Summit Digitel
- Swisscom
- Switch
- Taiwan Mobile
- Tata Communications
- Tata Teleservices
- Telefonica
- Telenor
- Telesites
- Telia
- Telkom SA
- Telstra
- Telus
- Tencent
- Thaicom
- Tower Bersama
- True Corp
- Turk Telekom
- Turkcell
- Uniti Group
- Veon
- Verizon
- Vodafone
- Windstream
- Yandex
- Zain
- Zayo
For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/agp3w2
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