The metals sector is a critical component of the global industrial and financial sectors. The Metals Forecast team develops demand and supply estimates over a 20 year period using five years of historical data for the major industrial metal markets: copper, lead, tin, nickel, and zinc. In addition, this forecast projects demand and supply of two of the major precious metals: gold and silver. Metal prices are determined by balancing global demand and global supply over a 20 forward period.
The metals forecast follows the trend in that production and consumption are calculated as a function of world supply and demand. For metals, it is also important to view each calculation of production as the total value of newly mined ore as well as recycled metal. The metals reported include copper, lead, tin, nickel, zinc, gold, and silver. For each, domestic production and consumption is reported, as well as the value of net exports for each. With production, it is assumed that a certain percentage of production is recycled, with a majority being mined. The world price is reported for all countries and projected forward as a function of future inflation and demand for commodities as a function of GDP. Units are reported in US dollars per metric ton for all metals except gold and silver, which are reported in US dollars per ounce.
The metals forecast acts as another window into a country with regards to development. Countries with a high rate of consumption with regards to commodities like copper indicate higher levels of growth. Likewise, countries with higher amounts of production may appear more attractive for developers and speculators looking to invest in commodity markets.
The forecast allows the reader to examine long-term trends that provide an added level of information in regard to a decision making process. Being able to answer questions regarding the details of a country without physically being there is an important resource.
Key Topics Covered:
I. Global Metals Overview
II. Country Metals Data
III. Metals Model
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