Fitch: Loan Growth Evident in Capital One's 3Q16 Earnings

CHICAGO--()--Capital One Financial Corporation's (COF) third quarter 2016 (3Q16) earnings were good and showed evidence of continued growth in the company's domestic credit card business and auto loan business, according to Fitch Ratings.

COF's overall return on average assets (ROAA) was 1.18% in 3Q16, up from 1.13% in the sequential quarter, but down 1.43% in the year-ago quarter. The year-over-year decline is primarily due to higher provision expense related to continued growth of the credit card portfolio as well as some problem assets in the company's energy portfolio and taxi medallion portfolio as well as $63 million of costs related to a build in the U.K. Payment Protection Insurance customer refund reserve.

The company's return on average equity (ROE) was 8.59% in 3Q16 up from 7.64% in the sequential quarter, but down from 9.54% in the year-ago quarter for the same reasons noted above. Overall revenue growth, while improved, remains challenging amid strong competition for card, auto, and commercial loans.

COF's balance sheet has continued to expand, growing 1.7% from the sequential quarter and 10% from the year-ago quarter. The year-over-year growth is due to both the GE Healthcare acquisition which closed at the end of 2015 as well as the previously noted growth in the company's large domestic credit card portfolio, which expanded 3% relative to the sequential quarter and 11% relative to the year-ago quarter.

Fitch believes this growth in the card portfolio is due to COF's continued efforts in marketing both its QuickSilver and Venture cards, both of which have comparatively good rewards programs. The cost of these rewards programs have partially offset some of the benefits to earnings from the growth noted above.

COF's deposit portfolio has grown more modestly, expanding 2% from the sequential quarter and 6% from the year-ago quarter to $226 million as of 3Q16. Given that loans grew faster than deposits the company's loan-to-deposit ratio remained elevated at approximately 106% as of 3Q16. COF primarily used securitizations and modest increases in wholesale borrowing to fund the loan growth.

Given the growth in the loan portfolio, particularly as it relates to comparatively higher yielding credit card receivables, the company's net interest income grew 4% from the sequential quarter and 11% from the year-ago quarter. Similarly the company's net interest margin (NIM) ticked up to a strong 6.79% in 3Q16, up from 6.73% in both the sequential and year-ago periods.

While COF's purchase volume increased 12% year-over-year, total non-interest income only grew 2% from the sequential quarter and 4% from the year-ago quarter, as Fitch believes COF is continuing to use more of its interchange revenue to fund its good rewards programs noted above.

Total non-interest expenses for COF grew 2% from the sequential quarter and 6% from the year-ago quarter as the company continues to manage expenses carefully within the context of its efforts to develop digital operating platforms and customer interfaces. Relative to both the sequential and year-ago quarters, COF did deliver positive operating leverage and the company's efficiency ratio ticked down to 52.02% in 3Q16.

As noted provision expense increased significantly increased relative to the year-ago quarter due to the acquisition of the GE Healthcare portfolio, growth in credit card and auto loan receivables, and some year-over-year deterioration the energy and taxi medallion portfolios. Relative to the sequential quarter provision was flat as provision related to growth in the credit card and auto loan portfolios was offset by some moderating of the energy loan portfolio.

COF's overall credit quality remains good, with the company's net charge-off (NCO) ratio ticking up modestly to 2.10% in 3Q16 which relative to the last 10 years is still low, though Fitch would note that COF's 30 day+ delinquency ratio is up nine basis points from the prior year period, still solid compared to historical averages. Additionally, this quarter's NCO ratio compares to 2.01% in the sequential quarter and 1.69% in the year-ago quarter.

The up-tick was due to continued seasoning and growth in the domestic credit card and auto loan portfolios. Fitch continues to believe credit quality in these portfolios is around cyclical troughs, and would expect further reversion in NCO ratios over a medium-term time horizon.

As noted, in the commercial portfolio both the energy and taxi medallion portfolios remain problematic. Given the rise in energy prices over the last several months, there has been some moderating of the deteriorating trends in the energy portfolio. Total energy loans are down to $5.4 billion, or 3.98% of the total commercial portfolio, and 1.11% of the total loan portfolio. Given the lower loan balances, the allowance was down sequentially by $22 million, but the energy reserve coverage remains good at 9.18% of loans held for investment.

COF's taxi medallion portfolio continues to see credit deterioration amid the proliferation of ride sharing services such as Uber and Lyft. However, the exposure remains modest at 1.16% of commercial loans and 0.32% of total loans. The allowance for this portfolio is $111mn as of 3Q16, representing reserve coverage of 14.32% of loans held for investment, but only 1.7% of the total allowance.

COF's Basel III Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio under the standardized approach as of the end of 3Q16 was 10.6% relative to 10.9% at the end of 2Q16. The decline was attributable to some share repurchases during the quarter as well as the balance sheet growth noted above. Similar to last quarter, COF noted that standardized ratio will be the long-term capital constraint for the company.

Additional information is available at www.fitchratings.com

ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTPS://WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEB SITE AT WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA, AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE, AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE CODE OF CONDUCT SECTION OF THIS SITE. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE.

Copyright © 2016 by Fitch Ratings, Inc., Fitch Ratings Ltd. and its subsidiaries. 33 Whitehall Street, NY, NY 10004. Telephone: 1-800-753-4824, (212) 908-0500. Fax: (212) 480-4435. Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved. In issuing and maintaining its ratings and in making other reports (including forecast information), Fitch relies on factual information it receives from issuers and underwriters and from other sources Fitch believes to be credible. Fitch conducts a reasonable investigation of the factual information relied upon by it in accordance with its ratings methodology, and obtains reasonable verification of that information from independent sources, to the extent such sources are available for a given security or in a given jurisdiction. The manner of Fitch's factual investigation and the scope of the third-party verification it obtains will vary depending on the nature of the rated security and its issuer, the requirements and practices in the jurisdiction in which the rated security is offered and sold and/or the issuer is located, the availability and nature of relevant public information, access to the management of the issuer and its advisers, the availability of pre-existing third-party verifications such as audit reports, agreed-upon procedures letters, appraisals, actuarial reports, engineering reports, legal opinions and other reports provided by third parties, the availability of independent and competent third- party verification sources with respect to the particular security or in the particular jurisdiction of the issuer, and a variety of other factors. Users of Fitch's ratings and reports should understand that neither an enhanced factual investigation nor any third-party verification can ensure that all of the information Fitch relies on in connection with a rating or a report will be accurate and complete. Ultimately, the issuer and its advisers are responsible for the accuracy of the information they provide to Fitch and to the market in offering documents and other reports. In issuing its ratings and its reports, Fitch must rely on the work of experts, including independent auditors with respect to financial statements and attorneys with respect to legal and tax matters. Further, ratings and forecasts of financial and other information are inherently forward-looking and embody assumptions and predictions about future events that by their nature cannot be verified as facts. As a result, despite any verification of current facts, ratings and forecasts can be affected by future events or conditions that were not anticipated at the time a rating or forecast was issued or affirmed.

The information in this report is provided "as is" without any representation or warranty of any kind, and Fitch does not represent or warrant that the report or any of its contents will meet any of the requirements of a recipient of the report. A Fitch rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a security. This opinion and reports made by Fitch are based on established criteria and methodologies that Fitch is continuously evaluating and updating. Therefore, ratings and reports are the collective work product of Fitch and no individual, or group of individuals, is solely responsible for a rating or a report. The rating does not address the risk of loss due to risks other than credit risk, unless such risk is specifically mentioned. Fitch is not engaged in the offer or sale of any security. All Fitch reports have shared authorship. Individuals identified in a Fitch report were involved in, but are not solely responsible for, the opinions stated therein. The individuals are named for contact purposes only. A report providing a Fitch rating is neither a prospectus nor a substitute for the information assembled, verified and presented to investors by the issuer and its agents in connection with the sale of the securities. Ratings may be changed or withdrawn at any time for any reason in the sole discretion of Fitch. Fitch does not provide investment advice of any sort. Ratings are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Ratings do not comment on the adequacy of market price, the suitability of any security for a particular investor, or the tax-exempt nature or taxability of payments made in respect to any security. Fitch receives fees from issuers, insurers, guarantors, other obligors, and underwriters for rating securities. Such fees generally vary from US$1,000 to US$750,000 (or the applicable currency equivalent) per issue. In certain cases, Fitch will rate all or a number of issues issued by a particular issuer, or insured or guaranteed by a particular insurer or guarantor, for a single annual fee. Such fees are expected to vary from US$10,000 to US$1,500,000 (or the applicable currency equivalent). The assignment, publication, or dissemination of a rating by Fitch shall not constitute a consent by Fitch to use its name as an expert in connection with any registration statement filed under the United States securities laws, the Financial Services and Markets Act of 2000 of the United Kingdom, or the securities laws of any particular jurisdiction. Due to the relative efficiency of electronic publishing and distribution, Fitch research may be available to electronic subscribers up to three days earlier than to print subscribers.

For Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan and South Korea only: Fitch Australia Pty Ltd holds an Australian financial services license (AFS license no. 337123) which authorizes it to provide credit ratings to wholesale clients only. Credit ratings information published by Fitch is not intended to be used by persons who are retail clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001

Contacts

Fitch Ratings
Justin Fuller, CFA
Senior Director
+1-312-368-5472
Fitch Ratings, Inc.
70 W. Madison Street
Chicago, IL 60602
or
Bain Rumohr, CFA
Director
+1-312-368-3153
or
Media Relations
Hannah James, New York, +1-646-582-4947
hannah.james@fitchratings.com

Contacts

Fitch Ratings
Justin Fuller, CFA
Senior Director
+1-312-368-5472
Fitch Ratings, Inc.
70 W. Madison Street
Chicago, IL 60602
or
Bain Rumohr, CFA
Director
+1-312-368-3153
or
Media Relations
Hannah James, New York, +1-646-582-4947
hannah.james@fitchratings.com