September Auto Sales Set to Reach $47 Billion

Average transaction prices likely to rise 2.0 percent

SANTA MONICA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales reached $47 billion for the month of September, down 0.3 percent from a year ago.

Despite higher average transaction prices, automakers should post a $138 million loss in revenue compared to last year due to expectation of lower sales in September 2016.

Average Transaction Prices in September 2016 remained nearly flat compared to the prior month while showing a gain of 2.0% over the prior year. A positive indicator of the continued strength in the auto market in general and reflection of the larger sales mix of higher priced trucks and utility vehicles.

“A favorable economic environment and low gas prices continue to drive up Average Transaction Prices, despite an increase in automaker incentive spending,” said Eric Lyman, TrueCar’s chief industry analyst. “Going forward TrueCar is keeping a close eye on Incentive Spending as a Percent of ATP which exceeded the 10% level for the second straight month. We expect this figure to drop as the sell down of 2016 model year vehicles is completed in Q4.”

Toyota proved to be the automaker with the largest year over year gains in ATPs, boasting an impressive 5.0% YOY gain, while the Volkswagen Group managed to jump 7.9% versus August, perhaps an indication that the automaker is recovering from damage incurred by the emissions scandal that made headlines one year ago.

TrueCar estimates the average transaction price (ATP) for a new light vehicle was $33,090 in September, up 2.0 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit rose by $245 to $3,387. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP was 10.2 percent, up from 9.7 percent a year ago.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer	Sept. 2016 Forecast	Sept. 2015	Aug. 2016	Percent Change vs. Sept. 2015	Percent Change vs. Aug. 2016
BMW (BMW, Mini)	$48,624	$49,268	$50,070	-1.3%	-2.9%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	$55,739	$58,308	$57,976	-4.4%	-3.9%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	$33,174	$32,606	$33,299	1.7%	-0.4%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	$35,053	$35,059	$35,470	0.0%	-1.2%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	$36,284	$35,296	$37,131	2.8%	-2.3%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	$27,745	$27,479	$27,466	1.0%	1.0%
Hyundai	$22,797	$23,873	$22,938	-4.5%	-0.6%
Kia	$23,859	$23,690	$23,694	0.7%	0.7%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	$27,583	$26,910	$27,447	2.5%	0.5%
Subaru	$27,429	$27,522	$28,044	-0.3%	-2.2%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	$31,618	$30,121	$31,456	5.0%	0.5%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	$40,669	$39,867	$37,681	2.0%	7.9%
Industry	$33,090	$32,441	$33,204	2.0%	-0.3%

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer	Sept. 2016 Forecast	Sept. 2015	Aug. 2016	Percent Change vs. Sept. 2015	Percent Change vs. Aug. 2016
BMW (BMW, Mini)	$6,732	$4,666	$6,480	44.3%	3.9%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	$4,342	$4,789	$4,371	-9.3%	-0.7%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	$4,302	$3,504	$4,205	22.8%	2.3%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	$4,092	$3,671	$4,153	11.4%	-1.5%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	$4,101	$4,016	$4,199	2.1%	-2.3%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	$1,722	$2,067	$1,620	-16.7%	6.3%
Hyundai	$2,431	$2,402	$2,420	1.2%	0.4%
Kia	$2,763	$2,817	$2,765	-1.9%	-0.1%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	$3,896	$3,476	$3,822	12.1%	1.9%
Subaru	$1,014	$602	$977	68.5%	3.8%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	$2,330	$2,331	$2,412	-0.1%	-3.4%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	$3,910	$3,168	$3,936	23.4%	-0.7%
Industry	$3,387	$3,142	$3,370	7.8%	0.5%

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer	Sept. 2016 Forecast	Sept. 2015	Aug. 2016	Percent Change vs. Sept. 2015	Percent Change vs. Aug. 2016
BMW (BMW, Mini)	13.8%	9.5%	12.9%	46.2%	7.0%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	7.8%	8.2%	7.5%	-5.2%	3.3%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	13.0%	10.7%	12.6%	20.7%	2.7%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	11.7%	10.5%	11.7%	11.5%	-0.3%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	11.3%	11.4%	11.3%	-0.7%	-0.1%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	6.2%	7.5%	5.9%	-17.5%	5.2%
Hyundai	10.7%	10.1%	10.6%	6.0%	1.1%
Kia	11.6%	11.9%	11.7%	-2.6%	-0.8%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	14.1%	12.9%	13.9%	9.4%	1.4%
Subaru	3.7%	2.2%	3.5%	69.0%	6.1%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	7.4%	7.7%	7.7%	-4.8%	-3.9%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	9.6%	7.9%	10.4%	21.0%	-8.0%
Industry	10.2%	9.7%	10.1%	5.7%	0.9%

About TrueCar

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars and enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more than 11,000 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations, including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Over one-third of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in San Francisco and Austin, Texas. For more information, go to www.truecar.com. Follow us on Facebook or Twitter.

TrueCar media line: [phone] (US toll-free) | Email: [e-mail]