FRAMINGHAM, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--According to a new mobile phone forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, worldwide smartphone shipments will slow to 8.3% annual growth in 2017 and 6.2% in 2018. Annual smartphone volume in 2013 surpassed 1 billion units for the first time, accounting for 39.2% growth over 2012. In the coming year, IDC expects mature markets like North America and Europe to drop to single digits, and Japan might contract slightly. Despite the high growth expected in many emerging markets, 2014 will mark the year smartphone growth drops more significantly than ever before. 2014 volumes are expected to be 1.2 billion, up from 1 billion in 2013, representing 19.3% year-over-year growth.
"In North America we see more than 200 million smartphones in active use, not to mention the number of feature phones still being used," said Ryan Reith, Program Director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "2014 will be an enormous transition year for the smartphone market. Not only will growth decline more than ever before, but the driving forces behind smartphone adoption are changing. New markets for growth bring different rules to play by and 'premium' will not be a major factor in the regions driving overall market growth."
As mature markets become saturated and worldwide growth slows, service providers and device manufacturers are seeking opportunities to move hardware wherever they can. The result is rapidly declining price points, creating challenging environments in which to turn a profit. Worldwide smartphone average selling price (ASP) was $335 in 2013, and is expected to drop to $260 by 2018.
"In order to reach the untapped demand within emerging markets, carriers and OEMs will need to work together to bring prices down," said Ramon Llamas, Research Manager with IDC's Mobile Phone team. "Last year we saw a total of 322.5 million smartphone units ship for under $150 and that number will continue to grow going forward. We've already seen numerous smartphone announcements targeting this priceband this year, with some as low as $25. Just as the dynamics have changed for overall smartphone growth, so have the dynamics for smartphone pricing in the markets where continued growth is expected. Not all vendors will want to get into this space, but those that do must make deliberate choices about their strategies in order to succeed."
Operating Systems
Android will maintain its reign as the leading operating system throughout IDC's forecast. With a strong presence within emerging markets and attainable price points for both vendors and customers, IDC expects both a commanding market share as well as prices below the industry average. What remains to be seen is which vendors will win the contest within emerging markets, as many local vendors have gained share last year.
iOS will remain the clear number 2 platform behind Android and will have the highest ASPs among the leading platforms. Apple has maintained a tight focus on the high end of the market with its most current devices, a trend we expect to see continue into the future. This could keep iOS from realizing greater volumes within emerging markets, but sales in mature markets will offset much of the difference.
Windows Phone stands to grow the fastest among the leading smartphone operating systems, with continued support from Nokia as well as the addition of nine new Windows Phone partners. Most of these new vendors come from emerging markets and could help bring the Windows Phone experience to customers there.
IDC has taken a conservative stance on BlackBerry's future. The company's recent moves to shore up its presence with government and enterprise users as well as its strongholds within emerging markets will be under constant attack from the competition. However, its higher-than-average prices compared to other platforms could inhibit its growth potential.
Worldwide Smartphone Forecast by OS, Shipments, and Market Share, 2014-2018 (Units in Millions)
| Operating System | 2014 Shipment Volumes* | 2014 Market Share | 2018 Shipment Volumes* | 2018 Market Share | 2014-2018 CAGR | |||||||||||||||
| Android | 950.5 | 78.9% | 1,321.1 | 76.0% | 10.7% | |||||||||||||||
| iOS | 179.9 | 14.9% | 249.6 | 14.4% | 10.2% | |||||||||||||||
| Windows Phone | 47.0 | 3.9% | 121.8 | 7.0% | 29.5% | |||||||||||||||
| BlackBerry | 11.9 | 1.0% | 5.3 | 0.3% | -22.6% | |||||||||||||||
| Others | 15.1 | 1.3% | 40.7 | 2.3% | 32.7% | |||||||||||||||
| Total | 1,204.4 | 100.0% | 1,738.5 | 100.0% | 11.5% | |||||||||||||||
* represents forecast data
Source: IDC Worldwide Mobile Phone Tracker, February 26, 2014
Worldwide Smartphone Average Selling Price (ASP) by Region and 5-Year CAGR (ASPs in $USD)
| Operating System | 2014 Smartphone ASP* | 2018 Smartphone ASP* | 2014-2018 CAGR | |||||||||
| Android | $247 | $202 | -6.1% | |||||||||
| iOS | $649 | $610 | -1.2% | |||||||||
| Windows Phone | $265 | $195 | -8.3% | |||||||||
| BlackBerry | $339 | $324 | -3.8% | |||||||||
| Others | $154 | $173 | 1.4% | |||||||||
| Total | $308 | $260 | -5.0% | |||||||||
* represents forecast data
Source: IDC Worldwide Mobile Phone Tracker, February 26, 2014
In addition to the table above, an interactive graphic showing smartphone ASP by operating system from 2012 - 2018 forecast period is available here. The chart is intended for public use in online news articles and social media. Instructions on how to embed this graphic can be found by viewing this press release on IDC.com.
About IDC Trackers
IDC Tracker products provide accurate and timely market size, vendor share, and forecasts for hundreds of technology markets from more than 100 countries around the globe. Using proprietary tools and research processes, IDC's Trackers are updated on a semiannual, quarterly, and monthly basis. Tracker results are delivered to clients in user-friendly excel deliverables and on-line query tools. The IDC Tracker Charts app allows users to view data charts from the most recent IDC Tracker products on their iPhone and iPad.
For more information about IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, please contact Kathy Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or knagamine@idc.com.
About IDC
International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. IDC helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based decisions on technology purchases and business strategy. More than 1,000 IDC analysts provide global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. In 2014, IDC celebrates its 50th anniversary of providing strategic insights to help clients achieve their key business objectives. IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the world's leading technology media, research, and events company. You can learn more about IDC by visiting www.idc.com.
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