ALG Finds 2016 Auto Sales Expected to Come in Just Shy of All-Time Annual Record

SANTA MONICA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,600,000 units in December, down 2.6 percent from a year ago. However, adjusting for one less selling day this year than in December 2015, sales may rise 1.0 percent on a daily selling rate (DSR) basis.

This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.41 million units for the month, down from a 17.52 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks should decline 2.2 percent to 1,406,281 adjusted for selling days.

“Barring a last minute push to close out the year, estimated sales will fall just a few thousand units short of the all-time sales record set in 2015,” said Eric Lyman, ALG’s chief industry analyst. “2016 will close out one of the most impressive runs of sales growth in automotive history. Following the turmoil of the Great Recession, the auto industry led the charge in economic recovery and continues to remain robust, setting the stage for sustained strength and balanced health for the remainder of the decade.”

Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,673 per vehicle in December, up 19.9 percent from a year ago, and down 1.6 percent from November 2016.

“Although incentive spending remains high, ALG expects production cuts in 2017 to find a better balance with natural demand,” said Lyman. “Despite falling short of the 2015 sales record, retail automotive sales continue at a blistering pace, giving the auto industry plenty to celebrate as we close out the year.”

The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment is at 98.0 this month compared to 93.8 in November which further underscores the strength of a healthy US economy; the November unemployment rate came in at an nine year low of 4.6 percent in combination with a favorable average gas price of $2.24 recorded for this current week.

Other key findings for December:

• Registration mix is expected to be 87.9 percent retail sales and 12.1 percent fleet versus 87.5 percent retail and 12.5 percent fleet last December.
• Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may reach 2,693,143 up 0.8 percent from December 2015.

Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume: Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	December 2016 Forecast	December 2015	% Change vs. December 2015		YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	37,000	39,699	-6.8	%	-3.3	%
Daimler	40,000	38,918	2.8	%	6.6	%
FCA	185,000	218,600	-15.4	%	-12.2	%
Ford	232,000	237,606	-2.4	%	1.3	%
GM	297,000	290,230	2.3	%	6.1	%
Honda	148,000	150,893	-1.9	%	1.7	%
Hyundai	66,500	63,508	4.7	%	8.6	%
Kia	54,500	54,241	0.5	%	4.2	%
Nissan	135,000	139,300	-3.1	%	0.5	%
Subaru	61,000	56,274	8.4	%	12.4	%
Toyota	227,000	238,350	-4.8	%	-1.2	%
Volkswagen Group	54,000	55,951	-3.5	%	0.1	%
Industry	1,600,000	1,643,289	-2.6	%	1.0	%

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	December 2016 Forecast		December 2015		November 2016
BMW	2.3	%	2.4	%	2.2	%
Daimler	2.5	%	2.4	%	2.4	%
FCA	11.6	%	13.3	%	11.7	%
Ford	14.5	%	14.5	%	14.2	%
GM	18.6	%	17.7	%	18.3	%
Honda	9.3	%	9.2	%	8.9	%
Hyundai	4.2	%	3.9	%	4.4	%
Kia	3.4	%	3.3	%	3.8	%
Nissan	8.4	%	8.5	%	8.3	%
Subaru	3.8	%	3.4	%	3.7	%
Toyota	14.2	%	14.5	%	14.4	%
Volkswagen Group	3.4	%	3.4	%	3.8	%

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	December 2016 Forecast	December 2015	YoY % Change		YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	35,520	38,360	-7.4	%	-4.0	%
Daimler	37,630	36,586	2.9	%	6.7	%
FCA	150,000	168,848	-11.2	%	-7.9	%
Ford	182,923	190,603	-4.0	%	-0.5	%
GM	254,000	250,360	1.5	%	5.2	%
Honda	146,509	149,295	-1.9	%	1.8	%
Hyundai	54,544	51,984	4.9	%	8.8	%
Kia	46,857	50,753	-7.7	%	-4.3	%
Nissan	116,214	117,298	-0.9	%	2.7	%
Subaru	59,511	54,248	9.7	%	13.8	%
Toyota	214,000	222,858	-4.0	%	-0.4	%
Volkswagen Group	50,398	51,003	-1.2	%	2.5	%
Industry	1,406,281	1,438,179	-2.2	%	1.4	%

Incentive Spending
Manufacturer	Incentive per Unit December 2016 Forecast		Incentive per Unit % Change vs. December 2015		Incentive per Unit % Change vs. November 2016		Total Spending December 2016 Forecast
BMW	$	5,815	21.9	%	1.2	%	$	214,752,557
Daimler	$	4,607	1.9	%	-4.0	%	$	184,293,341
FCA	$	4,291	21.9	%	0.5	%	$	789,079,658
Ford	$	4,190	34.1	%	-0.9	%	$	972,051,418
GM	$	4,611	13.8	%	-3.6	%	$	1,369,519,394
Honda	$	2,154	24.4	%	0.9	%	$	318,742,226
Hyundai	$	2,606	31.0	%	-0.5	%	$	173,329,459
Kia	$	3,416	20.6	%	1.4	%	$	186,186,312
Nissan	$	4,237	15.9	%	-1.6	%	$	572,049,235
Subaru	$	1,162	103.4	%	-1.8	%	$	70,853,630
Toyota	$	2,723	13.2	%	-2.3	%	$	618,227,347
Volkswagen Group	$	4,392	23.4	%	-1.6	%	$	234,976,376
Industry	$	3,673	19.9	%	-1.6	%	$	5,857,183,718

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.