RIO DE JANEIRO & SAO PAULO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Local and Foreign Currency IDRs (Issuer Default Ratings) of Banco do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul S.A. (Banrisul), as well as its National Ratings. The bank's IDRs and Long-Term National Rating Outlook was revised to Negative from Stable. A full list of the rating actions taken is detailed at the end of this release.
Key Rating Drivers
Banrisul's Rating Outlook was revised to Negative to reflect Fitch's expectation of deterioration in its asset quality and capitalization ratios as a result of the weakening of the State of Rio Grande do Sul's (ERS) financial profile. A potential deterioration in the bank's asset quality would demand higher reserves expenses and impact Banrisul's profitability and its internal capital generation.
Banrisul's ratings are driven by its stand-alone strengths and are also influenced by Fitch's internal assessment of ERS' creditworthiness. Banrisul has a strong operation in ERS, with 17% market share in credit and 40% in deposits. Around 15% of the bank's loan portfolio is related to ERS' employees. In addition, Banrisul has a strong performance in regional corporate credits within the ERS.
Banrisul's Viability Rating (VR) and IDRs reflect the bank's regional importance, its stable retail funding base, profitability, and adequate liquidity ratios. As other government-owned institutions in Brazil, Fitch contemplates the political influence on the bank's ratings. The Support Rating of '4' and the Support Rating Floor of 'B' reflect the limited possibility of support from the federal government in a stress scenario, due to the relative importance of Banrisul to the system. The bank ranks as the 12th largest financial institution in the country in terms of assets but there are no express guarantees of such support from the federal government. ERS controls 56% of Banrisul's capital, while the remainder is divided into minority shareholders and traded on the Stock Exchange.
Banrisul' profitability ratios show a declining trend, although they remain at an adequate level (ROAA declined to 1.0% as of first quarter 2015 (1Q15) from 1.2% in 2014 and 1.6% in 2013). In view of the more challenging economic environment for companies in the State and its increasing focus on services, Banrisul revised its credit expansion - which averaged annual growth in the last four years of around 15% - to between 9% and 13% in 2015.
Ninety-day past due loans reached 3.6% of the bank's portfolio in 1Q15 (3.4% in 2014). Despite the loan portfolio's adequate quality, Fitch expects some deterioration in the bank's corporate credit portfolio over the next 12 to 18 months. Negative developments with respect to companies considered within the scope of the 'Lava Jato' investigation could also have an impact on Banrisul, given the bank's exposure to some of the names involved.
Banrisul benefits from the lower costs of its deposit base, captured through its franchise. The bank has been issuing subordinated debt to reset its capital base, which is not included in the calculation of its Fitch Core Capital (FCC) ratio. Even discounting these issuances from the calculations, the FCC was an adequate 13.9% in March 2015 (14.1% in 2014).
Banrisul Debt
Financial Bills: Banrisul's national unsecured debt issuances rank equally with its other senior unsecured debts and their ratings are in line with the bank's Long-Term National Rating.
Subordinated Notes Tier 2 Capital denominated in USD: Banrisul's subordinated notes, rated by Fitch as 'BB-', due in January 2022, are notched down from the bank's 'bb+' VR. The notching includes one notch lower for loss severity features and its subordinated status, and a one-notch deduction due to moderate non-performance risk. These notes rank equally with the other subordinated debt of the bank and rely on a cumulative coupon deferral mechanism, which can be exercised in case the minimum regulatory capital requirements are not met. These notes have been experiencing discounts, since they do not qualify to be capital under Basel 3 rules.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Banrisul's ratings could be downgraded in case of further deterioration of asset quality ratios, with increase in credits past due over 90 days above 5%, should the coverage for credit losses deteriorate, or if the FCC falls to less than 12%. Furthermore, Banrisul's ratings can be affected by any change of Fitch's opinion on ERS' creditworthiness, given the bank's strong operations in the state.
On the other hand, the Outlook could be revised to Stable from Negative if Banrisul maintains adequate profitability, even in an adverse economic environment, as expressed by an Operating Profit over Gross Average Assets ratio above 2%, together with the good asset quality ratios, as measured by loans past due over 90 days around 3% and FCC of 14%.
Fitch has affirmed the following ratings:
--Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency IDRs at 'BB+'; Outlook Negative;
--Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency IDRs at 'B';
--Viability Rating at 'bb+';
--Support Rating at '4';
--Support Rating Floor at 'B';
--Long-Term National Rating at 'AA-(bra)'; Outlook Negative;
--Short-Term National Rating at 'F1+(bra)';
--Rating of the first issuance of senior unsecured financial bills at 'AA-(bra)';
--Rating of the subordinated notes Tier II Capital, due in February 2022, at 'BB-'.
Additional information available at 'www.fitchratings.com' or at 'www.fitchratings.com.br'.
Applicable Criteria
Global Bank Rating Criteria (pub. 20 Mar 2015)
https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=863501
National Scale Ratings Criteria (pub. 30 Oct 2013)
https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=720082
Additional Disclosures
Dodd-Frank Rating Information Disclosure Form
https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/press_releases/content/ridf_frame.cfm?pr_id=988875
Solicitation Status
https://www.fitchratings.com/gws/en/disclosure/solicitation?pr_id=988875
Endorsement Policy
https://www.fitchratings.com/jsp/creditdesk/PolicyRegulation.faces?context=2&detail=31
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