CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Mesirow Financial Chief Economist Diane Swonk’s new issue of Themes on the Economy contains a detailed rundown of economic warning signs from overseas. Greece occupies not only the headlines but first place on Swonk’s list of problem economies. In her annual conference with economists from around the world, she says “Some put the risk that Greece is forced out [of the Eurozone] at 70%, even after Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras capitulated.”
Daily, almost hourly, updates on Greek debt negotiations practically overshadowed new worries about a much larger economy: China. Chief Economist Diane Swonk says we need to take a good look at what the turmoil in Chinese equity markets could be signaling. “Depending on the measure, debt is somewhere between 175% to 225% of GDP. That is close to the 180% of GDP that Thailand experienced on the eve of its financial crisis in 1997.” Swonk’s estimates indicate that even a slowdown in GDP to five percent could halt the expansion of the middle class.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen this week repeated that contagion from China and/or Greece could postpone plans for liftoff, or “limp off,” as Swonk is now calling what will be the first rate increase in nearly a decade. For more on the risks the U.S. economy faces from Greece and China, read the latest issue of Themes on the Economy or, watch a video to hear Diane Swonk answer questions on how those risks stack up. Archived issues can also be found at mesirowfinancial.com.
Mesirow Financial is a diversified financial services firm headquartered in Chicago. Founded in 1937, it is an independent, employee-owned firm with approximately 1,200 employees globally. With expertise in Investment Management, Global Markets, Insurance Services and Consulting, Mesirow Financial strives to meet the financial needs of institutions, public sector entities, corporations and individuals. For more information about Mesirow Financial, visit its website at mesirowfinancial.com.
