BURLINGTON, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Decision Resources, one of the world’s leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the breast cancer therapy market will decline to $9.3 billion in 2011 before rising to $10.6 billion in 2020 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan.
The findings from the Pharmacor topic entitled Breast Cancer reveal that declines in sales, due to generic and biosimilar erosion of some key agents will be offset by an annual increase in the incidence of breast cancer and by the launch and uptake of premium-priced emerging therapies. In particular, generic erosion of Sanofi’s Taxotere (docetaxel), Roche/Chugai’s Xeloda (capecitabine) and Eli Lilly’s Gemzar (gemcitabine) and the aromatase inhibitors will constrain market growth.
Although breast cancer is one of the best-served oncology indications, significant clinical and commercial opportunities exist for agents that can penetrate this lucrative market.
“Twelve drugs are in Phase III development for breast cancer, a majority of which are targeted therapies, said Decision Resources Analyst Niamh Buckley, Ph.D. “We forecast that, through 2020, only three novel targeted therapies will gain approval for this indication— Novartis’s Afinitor and Roche/Genentech/Chugai’s pertuzumab and trastuzumab-DM1.”
According to the findings, although Roche/Genentech/Chugai’s Herceptin (trastuzumab) will lose patent protection in the world’s major pharmaceutical markets over the next ten years, Roche/Genentech/Chugai’s overall human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER2)-positive breast cancer franchise will increase by more than $1 billion from 2010 to 2020. Biosimilar erosion of Herceptin is expected to be initially minimal and will be offset by the companies’ launch of two second-generation HER2-targeted monoclonal antibody therapeutics—pertuzumab and trastuzumab-DM1 (T-DM1)—as well as a subcutaneous formulation of Herceptin. By 2020, Roche/Genentech/Chugai’s HER2-targeted agents will account for nearly half of the total breast cancer therapy market.
The Pharmacor Patient Flow Model for Breast Cancer, which contains detailed methodology that includes the modeling of recurrent cases of breast cancer, finds that the drug-treatable population for first-line therapy will decrease from 89,800 in 2010 to 87,000 in 2025.
“The decreasing trend in recurrence risk in conjunction with earlier stage at diagnosis will drive this decrease in first-line treatable populations,” said Decision Resources Senior Epidemiologist Alison Isherwood, Ph.D. “HR+/HER2- patients will dominate the first-line therapy patient population at 45 percent, followed by HER2+ (HR+ and HR-) patients at 31 percent and HR-/HER2- (triple negative) patients at 25 percent.”
About Pharmacor
Decision Resources’ Pharmacor advisory service offers clients in the biopharmaceutical industry the most up-to-date information available on commercially significant disease topics.
About Pharmacor Patient Flow Models
By utilizing our proprietary Pharmacor epidemiological data, Decision Resources now provides Pharmacor Patient Flow Models covering breast cancer, colorectal cancer, gastric cancer, malignant melanoma, non-small-cell lung cancer, ovarian cancer, prostate cancer and renal cell carcinoma. Using Pharmacor Patient Flow Models, users can build their own oncology patient flow model and/or validate the logic behind their own internal models. This interactive tool allows users to track changing disease and population dynamics over a 15-year annualized forecast, improve their modeling accuracy with clearly depicted methods and transparent assumptions and identify untapped market potential within lines of therapy. Pharmacor Patient Flow Models is available as an add-on product to the Pharmacor advisory service.
About Decision Resources
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