June Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®;
PMI at 55.3%;
New Orders, Production and Employment Growing;
Supplier Deliveries Slower;
Inventories Growing

DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of June 2011.

TEMPE, Ariz.--()--Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in June for the 23rd consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 25th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The PMI registered 55.3 percent, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from May, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 23rd consecutive month. New orders and production were both modestly up from last month, and employment showed continued strength with an increase of 1.7 percentage points to 59.9 percent. The rate of increase in prices slowed for the second consecutive month, dropping 8.5 percentage points in June to 68 percent. This follows a similar reduction of 9 percentage points in the Prices Index in May, and is the lowest figure since August 2010 when the index registered 61.5 percent. While the rate of price increases has slowed and the list of commodities up in price has shortened, commodity and input prices continue to be a concern across several industries.”

PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 12 are reporting growth in June, in the following order: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Printing & Related Support Activities; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The five industries reporting contraction in June are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Wood Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

  • “We continue to see inflation, though at a reduced rate [compared] to earlier months.” (Chemical Products)
  • “Slight slowdown in overall business in both domestic and international markets, although still above 2010 at the same time.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
  • “The earthquake and related issues in Japan have caused shortages of some automotive equipment, negatively impacting global automotive production.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • “Sales continue to be stronger than expected across both retail and industrial channels. Material costs are definitely rising and will force increases to end-use customers.” (Paper Products)
  • “High commodity prices continue to be worrisome.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • “Business is still up and down, with no real upside potential for us until the housing market rebounds.” (Furniture & Related Products)
  • “Customers are still being cautious with their buying. Certain plastics and metal prices continue to rise.” (Machinery)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
JUNE 2011

                       
Index

Series
Index
Jun

Series
Index
May

Percentage
Point
Change

Direction

Rate of
Change

Trend(a)
(Months)

 
PMI 55.3 53.5 +1.8 Growing Faster 23
New Orders 51.6 51.0 +0.6 Growing Faster 24
Production 54.5 54.0 +0.5 Growing Faster 25
Employment 59.9 58.2 +1.7 Growing Faster 21
Supplier Deliveries 56.3 55.7 +0.6 Slowing Faster 25
Inventories 54.1 48.7 +5.4 Growing From Contracting 1
Customers’ Inventories 47.0 39.5 +7.5 Too Low Slower 27
Prices 68.0 76.5 -8.5 Increasing Slower 24
Backlog of Orders 49.0 50.5 -1.5 Contracting From Growing 1
Exports 53.5 55.0 -1.5 Growing Slower 24
Imports 51.0 54.5 -3.5 Growing Slower 22
OVERALL ECONOMY

 

Manufacturing Sector

Growing Faster 25
Growing Faster 23

(a) Number of months moving in current direction

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Aluminum (10); Castings; Caustic Soda (4); Copper(b) (11); Copper Based Products(b) (8); Corn; Natural Gas; Packaging Materials (2); Plastic Products (6); Plastics (6); Polyethylene; Polypropylene (6); Resins (4); Rubber Products (5); Soybean Oil; Steel(b) (10); Steel Products (7); Steel Tube; and Titanium Dioxide (3).

Commodities Down in Price

Copper(b) (2); Copper Based Products(b); Nickel; Stainless Steel; and Steel(b) (2).

Commodities in Short Supply

Capacitors; Electric/Electronic Components (6); and Rubber Products (2).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

(b) Reported as both up and down in price.

JUNE 2011 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

PMI

Manufacturing continued its growth in June as the PMI registered 55.3 percent, an increase of 1.8 percentage points when compared to May’s reading of 53.5 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 25th consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 23rd consecutive month. Holcomb stated, “The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through June (58.8 percent) corresponds to a 5.7 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for June (55.3 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 4.5 percent increase in real GDP annually.”

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

          Month                     PMI                             Month                     PMI
 
Jun 2011 55.3 Dec 2010 58.5
May 2011 53.5 Nov 2010 58.2
Apr 2011 60.4 Oct 2010 56.9
Mar 2011 61.2 Sep 2010 55.3
Feb 2011 61.4 Aug 2010 55.2
Jan 2011 60.8 Jul 2010 55.1

Average for 12 months – 57.7
High – 61.4
Low – 53.5

New Orders

ISM’s New Orders Index registered 51.6 percent in June, which is an increase of 0.6 percentage point when compared to the 51 percent reported in May. This is the 24th consecutive month of growth in the New Orders Index. A New Orders Index above 52.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The 10 industries reporting growth in new orders in June — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Printing & Related Support Activities; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The seven industries reporting decreases in new orders in June — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products.

New Orders           %Better         %Same         %Worse         Net         Index
 
Jun 2011 34 43 23 +11 51.6
May 2011 30 54 16 +14 51.0
Apr 2011 49 43 8 +41 61.7
Mar 2011 43 47 10 +33 63.3

Production

ISM’s Production Index registered 54.5 percent in June, which is an increase of 0.5 percentage point when compared to the May reading of 54 percent. An index above 51 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures. This is the 25th consecutive month the Production Index has registered above 50 percent.

The 10 industries reporting growth in production during the month of June — listed in order — are: Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment. The three industries reporting a decrease in production in June are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Five industries reported no change in production in June compared to May.

Production           %Better         %Same         %Worse         Net         Index
 
Jun 2011 35 46 19 +16 54.5
May 2011 30 56 14 +16 54.0
Apr 2011 43 52 5 +38 63.8
Mar 2011 41 52 7 +34 69.0

Employment

ISM’s Employment Index registered 59.9 percent in June, which is 1.7 percentage points higher than the 58.2 percent reported in May. This is the 21st consecutive month of growth in manufacturing employment. An Employment Index above 50.1 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 11 reported growth in employment in June in the following order: Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Paper Products. The only industry reporting a decrease in employment in June is Apparel, Leather & Allied Products. Six industries reported no change in employment in June compared to May.

Employment           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Net         Index
 
Jun 2011 34 56 10 +24 59.9
May 2011 31 60 9 +22 58.2
Apr 2011 34 61 5 +29 62.7
Mar 2011 33 59 8 +25 63.0

Supplier Deliveries

The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in June as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 56.3 percent, which is 0.6 percentage point higher than the 55.7 percent registered in May. This is the 25th consecutive month the Supplier Deliveries Index has been above 50 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The eight industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in June — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. The only industry reporting faster deliveries in June is Primary Metals. Nine industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in June compared to May.

Supplier Deliveries           %Slower         %Same         %Faster         Net         Index
 
Jun 2011 18 78 4 +14 56.3
May 2011 22 70 8 +14 55.7
Apr 2011 24 73 3 +21 60.2
Mar 2011 26 73 1 +25 63.1

Inventories

The Inventories Index registered 54.1 percent in June, 5.4 percentage points higher than the 48.7 percent reported in May. An Inventories Index greater than 42.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

The six industries reporting higher inventories in June — listed in order — are: Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The five industries reporting decreases in inventories in June are: Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; and Transportation Equipment. Seven industries reported no change in inventories in June compared to May.

Inventories           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Net         Index
 
Jun 2011 23 61 16 +7 54.1
May 2011 20 57 23 -3 48.7
Apr 2011 27 55 18 +9 53.6
Mar 2011 19 60 21 -2 47.4

Customers’ Inventories(c)

The ISM Customers’ Inventories Index registered 47 percent in June, 7.5 percentage points higher than in May when the index registered 39.5 percent. This is the 27th consecutive month the Customers’ Inventories Index has been below 50 percent, indicating that respondents believe their customers’ inventories are too low at this time.

The four manufacturing industries reporting customers’ inventories as being too high during June are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The eight industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low during June — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery. Six industries reported no change in customers’ inventories for the month of June compared to May.

Customers’ Inventories          

%
Reporting

   

%Too
High

   

%About
Right

   

%Too
Low

    Net     Index
 
Jun 2011 70 13 68 19 -6 47.0
May 2011 72 6 67 27 -21 39.5
Apr 2011 73 9 63 28 -19 40.5
Mar 2011 62 11 57 32 -21 39.5

Prices(c)

The ISM Prices Index registered 68 percent in June, 8.5 percentage points lower than the 76.5 percent reported in May. This is the second consecutive month the Prices Index has registered below 80 percent since December 2010, and is the 24th consecutive month the index has registered above 50 percent. While 48 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices and 12 percent reported paying lower prices, 40 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as in May. A Prices Index above 49.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Index of Manufacturers Prices.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 13 report paying increased prices during the month of June, in the following order: Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Transportation Equipment. The two manufacturing industries reporting paying lower prices on average in June are: Primary Metals and Fabricated Metal Products.

Prices           %Higher     %Same     %Lower     Net     Index
 
Jun 2011 48 40 12 +36 68.0
May 2011 58 37 5 +53 76.5
Apr 2011 72 27 1 +71 85.5
Mar 2011 72 26 2 +70 85.0

Backlog of Orders(c)

ISM’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 49 percent in June, which is 1.5 percentage points lower than the 50.5 percent reported in May. Of the 84 percent of respondents who reported their backlog of orders, 24 percent reported greater backlogs, 26 percent reported smaller backlogs, and 50 percent reported no change from May.

The seven industries reporting increased order backlogs in June — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Computer & Electronic Products. The eight industries reporting decreases in order backlogs during June — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; and Primary Metals.

Backlog of Orders          

%
Reporting

    %Greater     %Same     %Less     Net     Index
 
Jun 2011 84 24 50 26 -2 49.0
May 2011 85 21 59 20 +1 50.5
Apr 2011 88 34 54 12 +22 61.0
Mar 2011 85 26 53 21 +5 52.5

New Export Orders(c)

ISM’s New Export Orders Index registered 53.5 percent in June, which is 1.5 percentage points lower than the 55 percent reported in May. This is the 24th consecutive month of growth in the New Export Orders Index.

The five industries reporting growth in new export orders in June are: Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The four industries reporting a decrease in new export orders during June are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery. Eight industries reported no change in exports in June compared to May.

New Export Orders          

%
Reporting

    %Higher     %Same     %Lower     Net     Index
 
Jun 2011 76 17 73 10 +7 53.5
May 2011 79 20 70 10 +10 55.0
Apr 2011 81 28 68 4 +24 62.0
Mar 2011 80 23 66 11 +12 56.0

Imports(c)

Imports of materials by manufacturers continued to expand in June as the Imports Index registered 51 percent, 3.5 percentage points lower than the 54.5 percent reported in May. This is the 22nd consecutive month of growth in imports.

The four industries reporting growth in imports during the month of June are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; and Fabricated Metal Products. The four industries reporting a decrease in imports during June are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; and Plastics & Rubber Products. Ten industries reported no change in imports in June compared to May.

Imports          

%
Reporting

    %Higher     %Same     %Lower     Net     Index
 
Jun 2011 76 15 72 13 +2 51.0
May 2011 78 17 75 8 +9 54.5
Apr 2011 81 20 71 9 +11 55.5
Mar 2011 78 18 77 5 +13 56.5

(c) The Backlog of Orders, Prices, Customers’ Inventories, Imports and New Export Orders Indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy

Average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures decreased 1 day to 103 days. Average lead time for Production Materials decreased 7 days to 54 days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies decreased 4 days to 24 days.

Percent Reporting

                           
Capital Expenditures

Hand-to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1
Year+

Average
Days

 
Jun 2011 30 10 13 13 24 10 103
May 2011 30 9 11 16 24 10 104
Apr 2011 28 6 16 16 23 11 108
Mar 2011 27 12 11 16 23 11 107
Production Materials    

Hand-to-
Mouth

   

30
Days

   

60
Days

   

90
Days

   

6
Months

   

1
Year+

   

Average
Days

 
Jun 2011 19 37 25 12 5 2 54
May 2011 15 36 28 12 6 3 61
Apr 2011 15 36 27 15 4 3 59
Mar 2011 17 38 27 13 3 2 53
MRO Supplies    

Hand-to-
Mouth

   

30
Days

   

60
Days

   

90
Days

   

6
Months

   

1
Year+

   

Average
Days

 
Jun 2011 44 43 10 3 0 0 24
May 2011 46 37 13 2 1 1 28
Apr 2011 44 43 12 1 0 0 23
Mar 2011 48 39 11 2 0 0 23

About this Report

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply managers based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. Use of the data is in the public domain and should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers’ Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).

The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (PMI, New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indexes for five of the indicators with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A PMI in excess of 42.5 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 42.5 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 42.5 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis.

Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month’s lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Production Materials; Capital Expenditures; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted since there is no significant seasonal pattern.

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management™. The Institute for Supply Management™, established in 1915, is the largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of the most respected. ISM’s mission is to lead the supply management profession through its standards of excellence, research, promotional activities and education. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is posted on ISM’s Web site at www.ism.ws on the first business day of every month after 10:10 a.m. (ET).

The next Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® featuring the July 2011 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on Monday, August 1, 2011.

Contacts

Institute for Supply Management
Rose Marie Goupil, 800-888-6276, Ext. 3015
rgoupil@ism.ws

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Contacts

Institute for Supply Management
Rose Marie Goupil, 800-888-6276, Ext. 3015
rgoupil@ism.ws