KBRA Releases Research – The Forward Look—U.S. Credit Insights: Q3 2026

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--KBRA releases its quarterly report highlighting our Chief Strategist Van Hesser’s view on key economic indicators, as well as what he identifies as the most influential factors driving credit markets in the upcoming quarter. The report also examines credit market valuations in the context of current and future market conditions.

Key factors driving credit market conditions in Q3 include resilient U.S. economic growth and strong, if not extraordinary, corporate earnings growth, which foster easy financial conditions and manageable business and consumer defaults. Credit spreads have proven to be relatively resilient to geopolitical developments, idiosyncratic credit deterioration, and technical pressures related to heavier-than-expected new-issue supply. We expect demand across all but the riskiest part of the credit curve to remain strong due to attractive income and durability considerations.

Looking ahead, we are paying close attention to several factors that could materially impact credit markets. First, the promise of artificial intelligence (AI) and all that goes into this story, from the quantum of debt issuance needed to finance infrastructure and development, to the pace of the buildout and constraints encountered along the way, to the degree of acceptance and productivity gains that result. Second, the resilience of consumer spending, which is facing mounting headwinds in the form of lower wage growth, persistent above-target inflation, and a less favorable labor market. Third, the long end of the yield curve, where rates have normalized, but where a number of factors have created uncertainty in the market. And fourth, the price of oil distillates, which adds a tax on growth.

Click here to view the report.

Related Publications

• Van Hesser’s 3 Things in Credit: A KBRA Podcast
• Gordon Kerr’s Credit Compass: Navigating European Credit Markets

About KBRA

KBRA, one of the major credit rating agencies, is registered in the U.S., EU, and the UK. KBRA is recognized as a Qualified Rating Agency in Taiwan, and is also a Designated Rating Organization for structured finance ratings in Canada. As a full-service credit rating agency, investors can use KBRA ratings for regulatory capital purposes in multiple jurisdictions.

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