WASHINGTON, D.C.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Predata, the predictive analytics platform that anticipates geopolitical risk, says in a new report that interest in tax cuts and economic policy is surging, with the latest Republican-led tax cut proposal top of mind for voters. Though news headlines focus on social issues, the economic card could be the key to the upcoming Midterm elections.
Based on the U.S. Midterm signals that Predata tracks to measure online behavior in key election issues, there is more interest in tax policy than other popular topics such as gun control and immigration policy within 60 days from Election Day, according to the Predata U.S. Midterm Elections Observer report. The tax policy signal rose significantly after the House Republicans’ released another tax cut plan in late July. The signal was at its highest last November after Republicans pushed through the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017.
Further emphasizing the economy heading into the midterm elections, a Predata anticipatory risk signal indicates that another escalation of the US-China Trade dispute is likely. The signal has reached its highest level since April 2018, implying that the White House will follow through on a threat President Trump made last Friday to impose more tariffs on Chinese goods. Despite this escalation, online interest remains moderate, suggesting that while the economy remains strong, voters’ interest remains elsewhere.
“Our measures of digital online interest reveal a pattern surprisingly different from the general impressions of broadcast media and telephone polls,” says Jim Shinn, Predata co-founder. “The GOP is apparently succeeding in attracting online attention to taxes and the U.S. economy, whereas interest in the Mueller Russia investigation, the Kavanaugh nomination, and the U.S-China trade war is currently muted. Even gun control and environmental regulation are lagging in terms of digital intensity.”
The report also shows that after the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, Predata’s Women’s Health Signal spiked, indicating that voters believed Kavanaugh was seen as a great threat to reproductive rights and perhaps even Roe v. Wade. However, the Women’s Health Signal and also the Supreme Court Nominations Signal have both been relatively muted recently compared to when Kavanaugh’s nomination was originally announced, even with the nomination hearings in full swing.
Additional signals that span gun control, immigration, and foreign policy around the Administration’s international activities have also been muted. "Predata's Gun Control Signal shows that the on-line firearms debate rapidly fades from public memory, after spiking in the immediate aftermath of a mass shooting. Unless another tragic shooting occurs between now and November, gun control will likely remain a secondary issue, although with a lot of state-to-state variation," said Shinn.
Another Predata signal shows a potential resurgence in activity related to the Trump-Russia investigation, which leapt to its highest level this year in July after President Trump’s summit with President Putin in Helsinki.
The report also discusses bursts in online activity around some typically Democrat-led issues, though the spikes are relatively moderate. The Healthcare Policy Signal, for example, surged after left-leaning candidate victories in Democratic primary elections in New York, Massachusetts and the Midwest—a reflection that those wins may have galvanized left-wing voters elsewhere in the nation.
To learn more about the Predata U.S. Midterm Elections Signals and the Predata platform, reach out at contact@predata.com.
About the Predata U.S. Midterm Elections Observer
The U.S. Midterm Elections Observer provides a quantitative outlook for the top 2018 election issues. Predata’s US Midterms signals are a collection of topics-based signals that capture the relative level of online activity related to various issues of importance in the 2018 election—from the economy to Russian meddling—to provide an indication to clients of what topics are most salient to voters at a given time.
About Predata
Predata uses alternative data and machine learning to quantify human behavior online to anticipate the risk of future events. The company is building the most comprehensive predictive analytics platform for geopolitical and market risk intelligence. The Predata platform enables customers to discover, quantify and act on dynamic shifts in online behavior. Combined with a proprietary event database, the Predata signals provide users with early warning for different types of risk events in any given country, operational footprint, or area of interest. For further information, visit www.predata.com or follow us on Twitter @predata.
