- The forecasted number of landfalling is one or two, vs. an average of 1.5 since 1995. This is a decrease from CFAN’s June forecast of 3 landfalling hurricanes.
- The forecasted Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is 128, versus an average of 103 since 1982. This forecast is comparable to CFAN’s June ACE forecast of 134.
- There is no clear signal from an El Nino or La Nina, making this a difficult forecast.
CFAN Senior Scientist Dr. Jim Johnstone, who leads CFAN’s seasonal hurricane forecasts, says: “The 2017 forecast is challenging, since there are multiple factors giving contradictory signals.”
North Atlantic hurricane activity varies greatly from year to year, including 5-fold variations in ACE. The number of U.S. landfalling hurricanes in one year has varied from 0 to 6. There were multiple landfalling major hurricanes in 2004 and 2005, but then there were no landfalls of major hurricane or Florida landfalls from 2006 to 2015.
CFAN’s latest 30-day outlook indicates that hurricane activity is ready to accelerate, with a preference for landfalls on the Atlantic coast. Will America’s luck will run out this year, ending the drought since 2005 of major hurricane landfalls striking the U.S.?
CFAN’s forecasts are unique in making a specific prediction of the number of U.S. landfalling hurricanes. Further, CFAN’s scientists have developed a new understanding of the complex relationships among global and Atlantic circulation patterns that influence ACE and the number of U.S. landfalls. This gives CFAN’s forecasts greater skill for years – like 2017 – when there is no clear signal from El Nino or La Nina.
CFAN’s President, Dr. Judith Curry, says: “CFAN’s state-of-the-art forecast tools provide added warning time that helps businesses and governments protect lives and property. In addition to seasonal forecasts, our short-term and monthly forecasts help businesses and governments make the difficult decisions needed to respond to hurricane threats.”
The Forecast Summary Report provides more information. Click here to request a copy. CFAN’s detailed technical reports are available through paid subscription.
Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) develops innovative forecast tools that give longer and more accurate warnings of extreme weather events so clients can better prepare and recover. CFAN’s staff applies the latest research to a wide range of customer challenges, helping businesses and governments around the world. Our advanced prediction tools provide clients with the confidence to make complex and difficult decisions about weather risks.
CFAN was founded in 2006 by Judith Curry and Peter Webster and launched under the Enterprise Innovation Institute’s VentureLab program at Georgia Tech. Its research has been assisted by grants from NOAA, NASA, and the Department of Energy.
Interviews are available on request. See the CFAN website for more about the company, its people, and products.