PC Market Forecast to Decline for a Second Consecutive Year in 2013, According to IDC

FRAMINGHAM, Mass.--()--Despite intense industry efforts to overcome market inertia, 2012 nonetheless ended on a sour note with global PC shipment volume shrinking 3.7% on the year. With limited initial traction from Windows 8 in the holiday season, and continued pressure from tablets, IDC now expects 2013 PC shipments to decline by 1.3% in 2013, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.

Disappointing holiday sales, an underwhelming reception to Windows 8, and continuing economic malaise that further crimped IT budgets marked the face of the market during the second half of 2012, leading to a year-on-year decline of 8.3% in fourth quarter shipments, the most substantial decline recorded for a holiday quarter.

Furthermore, emerging market growth potential is declining and coming closer to that of mature regions. 2012 marked the first year that emerging markets have seen a volume decline, and while 2013 will return to growth, it is projected at less than 1% and with modest, single-digit growth through 2017. For mature regions, 2013 will mark the third consecutive year of volume declines. IDC continues to expect limited growth in 2014 and 2015 with contracting volume in later years.

Although the PC industry had banked on Windows 8 and a more varied and less expensive offering of ultrathin notebooks to revive demand, efforts thus far have been disappointing. A lack of touchscreen components has contributed to a limited supply of touch-enabled Windows 8 models – being out of step with the touch focus of Windows 8, and appearing relatively expensive compared to other options.

"The PC market is still looking for updated models to gain traction and demonstrate sufficient appeal to drive growth in a very competitive market," said Loren Loverde, Program Vice President, Worldwide PC Trackers at IDC. "Growth in emerging regions has slowed considerably, and we continue to see constrained PC demand as buyers favor other devices for their mobility and convenience features. We still don't see tablets (with limited local storage, file system, lesser focus on traditional productivity, etc.) as functional competitors to PCs – but they are winning consumer dollars with mobility and consumer appeal nevertheless."

"The U.S. PC market struggled in 2012, culminating with a 6.5% year-on-year decrease in the fourth quarter and -7.6% growth for the full year. Market saturation, a tough economic environment and weakness across the board, and lack of momentum for Windows 8, which led to 2012 contraction, are expected to persist at least during the first half of 2013," said Rajani Singh, Research Analyst at IDC. "IDC expects the second half of 2013 to regain some marginal momentum partly as a rubber band effect from 2012, and largely thanks to the outcome of industry restructuring, better channel involvement, and potentially greater acceptance of Windows 8. We also anticipate a new refresh cycle momentum in the commercial segment driven by the end of Window XP life support."

               

PC Shipments by Region and Form Factor, 2012-2017 (Shipments in millions)

 
Region     Form Factor     2012     2013*     2017*
Emerging Markets Desktop PC 95.0 91.6 92.2
Emerging Markets Portable PC 110.9 115.5 148.0
Emerging Markets Total PC 205.9 207.1 240.2
 
Mature Markets Desktop PC 53.4 50.4 48.8
Mature Markets Portable PC 91.1 88.3 93.0
Mature Markets Total PC 144.5 138.7 141.8
 
Worldwide Desktop PC 148.4 142.1 141.0
Worldwide Portable PC 202.0 203.8 241.0
Worldwide     Total PC     350.4     345.8     382.0

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarter PC Tracker, February 2013

* Forecast data

See Table and Taxonomy Notes below.

In addition to the table above, a graphic illustrating desktop and portable PC shipments for both mature and emerging markets during the 2012-2017 forecast period is available at IDC.com. Instructions on how to embed this graphic into online news articles and social media can be found by viewing this press release on IDC.com.

               

PC Shipment Growth by Region and Form Factor, 2012-2017

 
Region     Form Factor     2012     2013*     2017*
Emerging Markets Desktop PC -3.8% -3.5% 0.0%
Emerging Markets Portable PC 0.8% 4.1% 7.1%
Emerging Markets Total PC -1.4% 0.6% 4.3%
 
Mature Markets Desktop PC -4.8% -5.5% -2.9%
Mature Markets Portable PC -8.1% -3.1% -1.4%
Mature Markets Total PC -6.9% -4.0% -1.9%
 
Worldwide Desktop PC -4.2% -4.3% -1.0%
Worldwide Portable PC -3.4% 0.9% 3.7%
Worldwide     Total PC     -3.7%     -1.3%     1.9%

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarter PC Tracker, February 2013

* Forecast data

Table Note: Mature Markets includes U.S., Western Europe, Japan, and Canada. Emerging Markets includes Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan), Latin America, Central and Eastern Africa, Middle East and Africa.

Taxonomy Note: PCs include Desktop, Mini Notebook and other Portable PCs, and do not include handhelds or Tablets such as the Apple iPad or Android Tablets

IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker gathers PC market data in 80 countries by vendor, form factor, brand, processor brand and speed, sales channel and user segment. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis as well as price band and installed base data. For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact Kathy Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or knagamine@idc.com.

About IDC Trackers

IDC Tracker products provide accurate and timely market size, vendor share, and forecasts for hundreds of technology markets from more than 100 countries around the globe. Using proprietary tools and research processes, IDC's Trackers are updated on a semiannual, quarterly, and monthly basis. Tracker results are delivered to clients in user-friendly excel deliverables and on-line query tools. The IDC Tracker Charts app, available at iTunes, allows users to view data charts from the most recent IDC Tracker products on their iPhone and iPad.

About IDC

International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. IDC helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based decisions on technology purchases and business strategy. More than 1,000 IDC analysts provide global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. For more than 49 years, IDC has provided strategic insights to help our clients achieve their key business objectives. IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the world's leading technology media, research, and events company. You can learn more about IDC by visiting www.idc.com.

All product and company names may be trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders.

Contacts

IDC
Loren Loverde, 305-351-3115
lloverde@idc.com
or
Jay Chou, 650-350-6464
jchou@idc.com
or
Bob O'Donnell, 650-350-6482
bodonnell@idc.com
or
Michael Shirer, 508-935-4200
press@idc.com

Release Summary

Worldwide PC shipments are forecast to decline by 1.3% in 2013, according to the IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.

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Contacts

IDC
Loren Loverde, 305-351-3115
lloverde@idc.com
or
Jay Chou, 650-350-6464
jchou@idc.com
or
Bob O'Donnell, 650-350-6482
bodonnell@idc.com
or
Michael Shirer, 508-935-4200
press@idc.com