SANTA MONICA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Edmunds.com, the premier resource for automotive information, forecasts that 1,287,603 new cars will be sold in August for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) this month of 14.5 million light vehicles. If the numbers hold, August will be the second best month of 2012 in terms of SAAR and the third best month in terms of unit sales.
“Sales showed signs of flattening out in the first couple months of summer, so August’s sales figures will come as a nice surprise for everyone in the auto industry,” says Edmunds.com Senior analyst Jessica Caldwell. “Automakers and dealers have been very creative in packaging hidden incentives in recent weeks and when you combine that with the selldown of popular 2012 model year vehicles, there have been some nice deals available to car buyers.”
Earlier this month, Edmunds.com Vice Chairman Jeremy Anwyl shed more light on these “hidden incentives” – which include stair-step programs and one-day demo sales – in a commentary posted to Edmunds.com’s Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/commentary/an-early-look-at-august-sales.html.
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SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER |
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| Sales | August-12 |
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Change from August | Change from July | |||||
| Volume | Forecast |
August-11 |
July-12 |
2011* | 2012 | |||||
| GM | 232,527 | 218,479 | 201,237 | 6.4% | 15.5% | |||||
| Ford | 191,918 | 174,804 | 173,482 | 9.8% | 10.6% | |||||
| Toyota | 183,562 | 129,482 | 164,898 | 41.8% | 11.3% | |||||
| Chrysler | 145,355 | 130,119 | 126,089 | 11.7% | 15.3% | |||||
| Honda | 132,537 | 82,321 | 116,944 | 61.0% | 13.3% | |||||
| Nissan | 103,071 | 91,541 | 98,341 | 12.6% | 4.8% | |||||
| Industry | 1,287,603 | 1,071,783 | 1,153,242 | 20.1% | 11.7% | |||||
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*NOTE: August 2012 had 27 selling days; August 2011 had 26 |
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Edmunds.com estimates that August’s projected sales will be an 11.7 percent increase from July 2012, and a 20.1 percent increase (unadjusted for number of selling days) from August 2011. Retail SAAR will come in at 12.0 million vehicles in August, with fleet transactions accounting for 17.0 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.1 million used cars will be sold in August, for a SAAR of 36.9 million (compared to 3.2 million – or a SAAR of 36.3 million – used car sales in July).
AUTOMAKER PERFORMANCE
Edmunds.com projects that the top automakers will see little shift in market share in August. GM is expected to have the most growth (+0.6 percentage points) from July to August, while Nissan will slide the most (-0.5 percentage points).
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MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER |
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August 12 |
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Change from August 2011 | Change from July 2012 | |||||
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Market Share |
Forecast |
August-11 |
July-12 |
(Percentage pts.) | (Percentage pts.) | |||||
| GM | 18.1% | 20.4% | 17.4% | -2.3% | 0.6% | |||||
| Ford | 14.9% | 16.3% | 15.0% | -1.4% | -0.1% | |||||
| Toyota | 14.3% | 12.1% | 14.3% | 2.2% | 0.0% | |||||
| Chrysler | 11.3% | 12.1% | 10.9% | -0.9% | 0.4% | |||||
| Honda | 10.3% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 0.2% | |||||
| Nissan | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | |||||
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