DUBLIN--(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/097ce1bc/country_forecast_u) has announced the addition of the "Country Forecast United States Updater" report to their offering.)--Dublin - Research and Markets (
Republican control of the House of Representatives since late 2010, has slowed the legislative process almost to a halt. An improvement is highly unlikely before the elections in November 2012. The re-election bid of the president, Barack Obama, will be heavily dependent on the performance of the economy.
Mitt Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts, has essentially secured the Republican nomination for president and will now increasingly focus on the general election, which is his to lose. The outlook for the public finances is poor, with large budget deficits forecast over the next two years.
Private job creation has improved recently, but the unemployment rate remains stubbornly high. Rising energy prices will keep upward pressure on headline inflation, but core inflation is still comfortable. The Fed ended its programme of quantitative easing (QE2) at the end of June last year, but is lengthening the maturity of its portfolio of US Treasuries to try to push down long-term interest rates.
We do not expect the Fed to start raising its policy rate until 2014. We forecast GDP growth of 2.2% in 2012, and an annual average of 2.3% in 2013-16.
Mitt Romney has effectively secured the Republican presidential nomination with a string of victories in key primaries. He will aim to focus on the general election campaign, but his main challenger, Rick Santorum, has the resources to drag out the primary campaign for some weeks.
The Supreme Court has heard a legal challenge to the president's signature healthcare reform. If it strikes down the individual mandate (a key component that requires US residents to obtain health insurance), the whole reform could fall--or Congress may have to return to the issue, because the remaining provisions would become unworkable.
Key Topics Covered:
Country Forecast United States Updater
United States of America at a glance: 2012-16
Country forecast overview: Highlights
Country forecast overview: Key indicators
Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings
Country forecast overview: United States of America's business environment
Outlook for 2012-16: Political stability
Outlook for 2012-16: Election watch
Outlook for 2012-16: International relations
Outlook for 2012-16: Policy trends
Outlook for 2012-16: Fiscal policy
Outlook for 2012-16: Monetary policy
Outlook for 2012-16: Economic growth
Outlook for 2012-16: Inflation
Outlook for 2012-16: Exchange rates
Outlook for 2012-16: External sector
Data summary: Global outlook
Data summary: Gross domestic product, current market prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product, at constant prices
Data summary: Gross domestic product by sector of origin
Data summary: Growth and productivity
Data summary: Economic structure, income and market size
Data summary: Fiscal indicators
Data summary: Monetary indicators
Data summary: Employment, wages and prices
Data summary: Current account and terms of trade
Data summary: Foreign direct investment
Data sources and definitions
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