Edmunds.com Auto Sales Forecast: Analysts See Chrysler up 35 Percent

SANTA MONICA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--An estimated 866,655 new cars will be sold in January, for a projected Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 13.4 million units, forecasts Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information. This sales pace is relatively flat from the 13.5 million SAAR recorded last month, but up from the 12.6 million SAAR from January 2011.

“Chrysler’s momentum has been nothing short of remarkable, especially when it was on its last lifelines as recently as two years ago”

Edmunds.com forecasts that Chrysler will have the biggest year-over-year sales jump of any major automaker in January, climbing 35.1 percent. The growth far outpaces the year-over-year performance of any other Big Six automaker, with Ford coming closest at 9.5 percent. Chrysler also will attain the highest year-over-year market share growth of any top automaker, gaining 2.3 percentage points compared to January 2011.

“Chrysler’s momentum has been nothing short of remarkable, especially when it was on its last lifelines as recently as two years ago,” said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Michelle Krebs. “It’s poetic that Chrysler is receiving this well-deserved recognition almost exactly one year after its ‘Imported from Detroit’ ad campaign debuted during the Super Bowl, which was really the big turning point for the company.”

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales Volume	Jan-12 Forecast	Jan-11	Dec-11	Change from Jan 2011		Change from Dec 2011
GM	163,061	178,901	234,351	-8.9	%	-30.4	%
Ford	138,670	126,645	209,449	9.5	%	-33.8	%
Toyota	120,980	115,856	178,131	4.4	%	-32.1	%
Chrysler	94,733	70,118	138,019	35.1	%	-31.4	%
Nissan	77,640	71,847	100,927	8.1	%	-23.1	%
Honda	75,419	76,268	105,230	-1.1	%	-28.3	%
Industry	866,655	819,097	1,242,971	5.8	%	-30.3	%
*NOTE: January 2011 and 2012 each had 24 sales days

General Motors is expected to have the least growth of any major automaker. Edmunds.com predicts that GM’s year-over-year sales will fall 8.9 percent in January, resulting in a three percentage-point decline in market share. However, Edmunds believes that this decline is in large part due to GM’s aggressive incentives push – and resulting sales – in early-2011 that was not repeated in 2012.

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market Share	Jan-12 Forecast		Jan-11		Dec-11		Change from Jan-11		Change from Dec-11
GM	18.8	%	21.8	%	18.9	%	-3.0	%	0.1	%
Ford	16.0	%	15.5	%	16.9	%	0.5	%	-0.9	%
Toyota	14.0	%	14.1	%	14.3	%	-0.1	%	-0.3	%
Chrysler	10.9	%	8.6	%	11.1	%	2.3	%	-0.2	%
Nissan	9.0	%	8.8	%	8.1	%	0.2	%	0.9	%
Honda	8.7	%	9.3	%	8.5	%	-0.6	%	0.2	%

Overall sales are expected to rise 5.8 percent from January 2011, but will fall 30.3 percent from December 2011, which falls in line with the typical pattern of December-to-January turnaround. Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 10.8 million vehicles in January, with fleet transactions accounting for 20 percent of total sales.

“This is a solid start to 2012, especially when there were so many fewer ‘buy’ messages in January compared to December’s heavy holiday sales push,” said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “The continued momentum suggests that deferred demand is still keeping the auto industry’s mini sales bubble afloat.”

Additional data on sales, market share and incentive spending can also be found in Edmunds.com’s Data Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/data/.

About Edmunds.com, Inc. (http://www.edmunds.com/help/about/index.html)

Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information, launched in 1995 as the first automotive information Web site. Its revered mobile site and five-star app makes car pricing and other research tools available for car shoppers at dealerships and otherwise on the go. Its automotive enthusiast Web site, InsideLine.com, is the most-read car publication of its kind. Its highly regarded mobile site and app features the wireless Web's highest quality car photos and videos. Edmunds.com Inc. is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, and maintains a satellite office in suburban Detroit. Follow Edmunds.com on Twitter@edmunds and like Edmunds.com on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/edmunds.