Research and Markets: North Africa Business Forecast Report Q2 2011

DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/443ec9/north_africa_busin) has announced the addition of the "North Africa Business Forecast Report Q2 2011" report to their offering.

“North Africa Business Forecast Report Q2 2011”

North Africa: Moderate Contagion Risks

The four frontier markets of North Africa (Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia) certainly face elevated levels of political risk following the protests that began in Tunisia and spread across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA ) region in early January. However, the core view is that regime change brought about by large-scale demonstrations, which succeeded in Tunisia, will not achieve the same result in the other North African frontier markets. While BMI see scope for civil unrest in Libya, Algeria, and Morocco, BMI believe each government has the tools to suppress protests, either through force or appeasement.

Given BMI's view that North African regimes (apart from Tunisia) will remain in power, BMI believe the economies of those countries will benefit from the relative stability of the status quo, while oil producers such as Libya and Algeria may actually benefit from the spike in oil prices brought about by an increase in risk aversion. Libya will lead the pack in terms of real growth between 2011 and 2015, averaging 5.1% per year, while Tunisia will lag the group with an average of just 3.9% over the same period.

While Libya shares many characteristics with Tunisia, BMI expect Tripoli to survive any onslaught attempts at regime change, boding well for overall stability and economic growth. Indeed, BMI acknowledge that the country faces large structural economic imbalances, rising food prices, and unrest in bordering countries, but BMI believe the strength of Libya's security apparatus and the weakness of the opposition will prevent the ouster of Colonel Muammar Qadhafi. BMI see healthy rates of growth over the medium term, as Tripoli seeks to exploit the country's energy resources, though BMI's growth forecasts are below consensus, due to BMI's relatively bearish outlook on oil production. Overall, BMI expect broad continuity in the country's political and economic policies.

Key Topics Covered:

• BMI Ratings
• Executive Summary
• Chapter 1.1: Political Outlook - Algeria
• Chapter 1.2: Economic Outlook - Algeria
• Chapter 1.3: 10-Year Forecast - Algeria
• Chapter 2.1: Political Outlook - Libya
• Chapter 2.2: Economic Outlook - Libya
• Chapter 3.1: Political Outlook - Morocco
• Chapter 3.2: Economic Outlook - Morocco
• Chapter 3.3: 10-Year Forecast - Morocco
• Chapter 4.1: Political Outlook - Tunisia
• Chapter 4.2: Economic Outlook - Tunisia
• Chapter 4.3: 10-Year Forecast - Tunisia
• Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions

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