Research and Markets: Sri Lanka Power Report 2010 - Independent Forecasts and Competitive Intelligence

DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/8de1ae/sri_lanka_power_re) has announced the addition of the "Sri Lanka Power Report 2010" report to their offering.

Sri Lanka Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Sri Lanka's power industry.

The new Sri Lanka Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.17% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2014, with a broadly balanced supply/demand situation that is weakened by persistent system losses. BMI's Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2009 is 7,308 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 2.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,725TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 26.2% in 2010-2014. Asia Pacific thermal power generation in 2009 totalled an estimated 5,849TWh, accounting for 80.0% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,600TWh, implying a 23.7% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 78.1%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Sri Lanka's thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 5.7TWh, or 0.10% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for an unchanged 0.10% of thermal generation.

For Sri Lanka, biomass/coal was in 2009 the dominant fuel, accounting for an estimated 46% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at around 45%, with hydro-power accounting for the remainder of the energy pie. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,334mn toe by 2014, representing 24.6% growth from the estimated 2009 level. Sri Lanka's estimated 2009 market share of 0.33% is set to rise to 0.39% by 2014.

Sri Lanka is ranked third-from-last, above only Taiwan and Cambodia, in BMI's updated Power Business Environment rating, thanks to its small size and relatively high risk profile. It has a three-point lead over Taiwan, so is at little risk of being overtaken during the next few quarters. Energy and power growth potential offsets some of the country's other weaknesses, and there is long-term scope to challenge South Korea and Singapore above.

BMI is forecasting Sri Lankan real GDP growth of an average 6.12% per annum between 2010 and 2014, with the 2010 estimate being growth of 5.40%. Population is expected to expand from 20.2mn to 21.0mn over the period, with 2010-2014 GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 72% and 33% respectively. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 9.5TWh in 2009 to 13.9TWh by the end of the forecast period, with a broadly balanced market undermined by continuing system losses, assuming 7.8% annual growth in generation during 2010-2014. Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a 100.8% increase in Sri Lankan electricity generation, which is one of the highest projected rates for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 47.2% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 36.4% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to rise from 44.8% in 2010-2014 to 59.5% in 2014-2019, providing growth of 131.0% during the 10-year forecast period. An increase of 129% in hydro-power use and 286% in thermal power generation is expected by 2019. More detail of the longterm BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.

Key Topics Covered:

Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis

Industry Overview

Industry Forecast Scenario

Competitive Landscape

Methodology And Risks To Forecasts

Companies Mentioned: CEB

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/8de1ae/sri_lanka_power_re