Research and Markets: South Africa Agribusiness Report Q4 2010

DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/993c0e/south_africa_agrib) has announced the addition of the "South Africa Agribusiness Report Q4 2010" report to their offering.

South Africa Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on South Africa's agribusiness service.

Our newly-revised forecasts incorporate new government data for the production and consumption of grains and beef. Over the next five years, particularly strong production growth is envisaged for poultry, beef, sugar, corn and sorghum; sugar and sorghum stand to benefit from new initiatives aimed at developing renewable energy sources. Meanwhile, disease and the strong rand continue to pose risks to our poultry and beef outlooks, particularly relating to exports. Consumption across all of South Africa's major agricultural sectors is expected to remain positive over our five-year forecast period. Consumption growth will be especially strong in the case of rice, poultry and beef, with rising incomes and population growth being two main factors fuelling growth.

Key Forecasts

Corn is South Africa's most widely produced and consumed grain. Production and consumption are both expected to be strong over the forecast period, hovering between 16% and 18%; South African white corn continues to be popular as an exported good.
Poultry production and consumption growth will both increase by 32% and 27% respectively to 2014; growth will be fuelled by demand stemming from higher incomes and by an increasing prevalence of fast food outlets.
Beef production and consumption growth will also remain strong during our forecast period, increasing by 20% and 19% respectively to 2014; growth will be demand-driven, reflecting rising GDP per capita and the move by larger numbers of consumers to integrate red meat into their diets.
Rice consumption growth of almost 29% to 2014. Rising incomes will lead people to choose rice over traditional, more labour-intensive carbohydrate sources. African produced 'Nerica' rice could also grow in popularity.
2010 Real GDP Growth: 3.0% (up from -1.8% in 2009; predicted to average 3.1% from now until 2014).
Consumer Price Inflation: 4.6% year-on-year in May 2010 (down from an average of 7.1% in 2009). Key Views
South Africa will remain a world leading corn exporter. Favourable weather conditions and steady rains are expected to result in another bumper harvest in 2009/10, with an estimated 13.32mn tonnes of production. An improved macroeconomic outlook, together with the development of new maize varieties should ensure that production remains robust over the next few years. New initiatives that could also provide the industry with a major boost include the introduction of so-called 'value-chain financing'.
South African wheat farmers will potentially benefit from new moves to protect the price of their produce from cheaper imports. In addition to poor harvest conditions in 2009/10, declining profitability in the face of cheaper imported wheat products has provided farmers with a disincentive to produce. In May 2010, South Africa's International Trade Administration Commission reportedly made an administrative change which will effectively increase import duties on wheat. The move has potential to help counteract the recent decline in wheat production. Meanwhile, rising local wheat prices owing to global shortages are likely to result in an increase in the amount of hectares of wheat planted in 2010/11.
The production of crops such as sugar cane and sorghum has potential to benefit from the government strategy to expand into renewable energy and the production of ethanol. The Biofuels Industrial Strategy of the Republic of South Africa, unveiled in December 2007, envisages a target of 2% biofuels content in national liquid fuel supply by 2013. The use of biofuels in domestic cars could become a strong growth driver for the production of sugar. The relatively young population, together with rising incomes mean that the number of cars on South African roads is expected to double in the five years to 2014. The production of biofuels is seen as a major lucrative prospect for the sugar sector.

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