Virtually No Change in Annual Harris Poll Confidence Index from Last Year

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--For 44 years, since 1966, The Harris Poll has measured how confident the American people are in the leaders of major U.S. institutions. Based on the responses, Harris calculates an overall Confidence Index. Over the years it has gone up and down. In 2002, it touched 65. In 2008, it fell to 44. This year it stands at 53, one point lower than in early 2009.

“As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?”

However, this lack of movement in the Confidence Index is the result of a number of increases and decreases in confidence in the leaders of different institutions. The biggest change since early 2009 is the substantial drop in public confidence in the White House. Those with a “great deal of confidence” have fallen by 9 points from 36% to 27%.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 1,010 adults surveyed by telephone between February 16 and 21, 2010 by Harris Interactive.

There have also been declines in those with a great deal of confidence in colleges and universities (from 40% to 35%), organized religion (from 30% to 26%) and television news (from 22% to 17%).

On the other hand, there have been increases in those with a great deal of confidence in the courts and justice system (from 19% to 24%), major companies (from 11% to 15%), and Congress (from 4% to 8%). However, confidence in all of these is still very low.

Institutions at the top and bottom of the list

This year there are five institutions that have leaders who inspire a great deal of confidence in more than 30% of Americans:

The military (59%);
Small business (50%);
Major educational institutions, such as colleges and universities (35%);
Medicine (34%); and,
The U.S. Supreme Court (31%).

On the other side of the list, there are five institutions that have leaders who inspire a great deal of confidence in less than 15% of Americans:

Organized labor (14%);
The press (13%);
Law firms (13%);
Congress (8%); and,
Wall Street (8%).

In fact, almost half of Americans say they have hardly any confidence at all in the leaders of both Congress (48%) and Wall Street (45%).

Partisan Differences

There are also some large partisan differences. Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to say they have a great deal of confidence in:

The military (79% vs. 54%);
Small business (62% vs. 44%); and,
Organized religion (42% vs. 21%).

Democrats, on the other hand, are much more likely than Republicans to say they have a great deal of confidence in:

The White House (54% vs. 7%);
Organized labor (27% vs. 7%);
The press (22% vs. 8%), and
Congress (14% vs. 6%).

So what?

Each year the Harris Poll Confidence Index survey is conducted in late February/early March. Last year this was right after President Obama was sworn into office and there was a large sense of optimism in the country. This was clearly reflected by the 10 point rise in the Index from 2008 to 2009. This year, a bit of reality has set in and, thanks to the economy not turning around as quickly as most people hoped, a sense of pessimism is returning. Events this year will obviously influence what happens to the index in the twelve months. If the economy improves substantially, maybe it will go back up. If not, the question is not if it will drop, but rather, by how much.


TABLE 1 CURRENT CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (2010) “As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?”
Base: All Adults

		A Great Deal of Confidence	Only some Confidence	Hardly Any Confidence At All	Not Sure/Decline to Answer
		%	%	%	%
	The military	59	30	9	2
	Small business	50	42	5	3
	Major educational institutions, such as colleges and universities	35	49	13	3
	Medicine	34	47	16	3
	The U.S. Supreme Court	31	46	21	2
	The White House	27	38	33	2
	Organized religion	26	44	24	6
	The courts and the justice system	24	54	19	3
	Public schools	22	54	22	1
	Television news	17	54	26	3
	Major companies	15	56	27	3
	Organized labor	14	49	31	6
	The press	13	47	39	2
	Law firms	13	54	28	6
	Congress	8	41	48	2
	Wall Street	8	43	45	4
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.


TABLE 2A CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (2001-2010) "As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?" Those saying “A great deal of confidence”
Base: All Adults

	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	Change 2009- 2010
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
The military	44	71	62	62	47	47	46	51	58	59	+1
Small business	X	X	X	X	47	45	54	47	48	50	+2
Major educational institutions such as colleges and universities	35	33	31	37	39	38	37	32	40	35	-5
Medicine	32	29	31	32	29	31	37	28	34	34	0
The U.S. Supreme Court	35	41	34	29	29	33	27	25	28	31	+3
The White House	21	50	40	31	31	25	22	15	36	27	-9
Organized religion	25	23	19	27	27	30	27	25	30	26	-4
The courts and the justice system	X	X	X	X	22	21	21	16	19	24	+5
Public schools	X	X	X	X	26	22	22	20	25	22	-3
Television news	24	24	21	17	16	19	20	16	22	17	-5
Major companies	20	16	13	12	17	13	16	14	11	15	+4
Organized labor	15	11	14	15	17	12	15	11	16	14	-2
The press	13	16	15	15	12	14	12	10	12	13	+1
Law firms	10	13	12	10	11	10	13	10	11	13	+2
Congress	18	22	20	13	16	10	10	8	9	8	-1
Wall Street	23	19	12	17	15	15	17	11	4	8	+4
The executive branch of the federal government	20	33	26	23	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
HARRIS INTERACTIVE CONFIDENCE INDEX*	55	65	57	55	53	52	53	44	54	53	-1
X = Not asked; * see methodology


TABLE 2B CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (1991-2000) "As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?" Those saying “a great deal of confidence”
Base: All Adults

	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
The military	X	50	57	39	43	47	37	44	54	48
Small business	47	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Major educational institutions such as colleges and universities	X	29	23	25	27	30	27	37	37	36
Medicine	23	22	22	23	26	29	29	38	39	44
The U.S. Supreme Court	15	30	26	31	32	31	28	37	42	34
The White House	X	25	23	18	13	15	15	20	22	21
Organized religion	21	11	X	X	24	X	20	25	27	26
The courts and the justice system	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Public schools	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Television news	9	12	23	20	16	21	18	26	23	20
Major companies	20	10	16	19	21	21	18	21	23	28
Organized labor	21	11	X	X	8	X	9	13	15	15
The press	X	X	15	13	11	14	11	14	15	13
Law firms	X	13	11	8	9	11	7	11	10	12
Congress	9	16	12	8	10	10	11	12	12	15
Wall Street	14	13	13	15	13	17	17	18	30	30
The executive branch of the federal government	X	X	15	12	9	12	12	17	17	18
HARRIS INTERACTIVE CONFIDENCE INDEX*	45	45	47	43	43	47	42	54	60	59
X = Not asked; * see methodology


TABLE 2C CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (1981-1990) "As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?” Those saying “a great deal of confidence”
Base: All Adults

	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Small business	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
The military	28	31	35	45	32	36	35	33	32	43
Major educational institutions such as colleges & universities	34	30	36	40	35	34	36	34	32	35
Medicine	37	32	35	43	39	33	36	40	30	35
The U.S. Supreme Court	29	25	33	35	28	32	30	32	28	32
The White House	28	20	23	42	30	19	23	17	20	14
Organized religion	22	20	22	24	21	22	16	17	16	20
The courts and justice system	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Public Schools	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Television news	24	24	24	28	23	27	29	28	25	27
Major companies	16	18	18	19	17	16	21	19	16	9
Organized labor	12	8	10	12	13	11	11	13	10	18
The press	16	14	19	18	16	19	19	18	18	12
Law firms	X	X	12	17	12	14	15	13	X	X
Congress	16	13	20	28	16	21	20	15	16	14
Wall Street	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	8	21
The executive branch of the federal government	24	X	X	X	19	18	19	16	17	14
HARRIS INTERACTIVE CONFIDENCE INDEX*	51	46	53	63	51	51	53	50	46	50
X = Not asked; * see methodology


TABLE 2D CONFIDENCE IN LEADERS OF INSTITUTIONS (1966-1980) "As far as people in charge of running (READ EACH ITEM) are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?” Those saying “a great deal of confidence”
Base: All Adults

	1966	1971	1972	1973	1974	1975	1976	1977	1978	1979	1980
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
The military	61	27	35	40	33	24	23	27	29	29	28
Small business	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Major educational institutions such as colleges & universities	61	37	33	44	40	36	31	37	41	33	36
Medicine	73	61	48	57	50	43	42	43	42	30	34
The U.S. Supreme Court	50	23	28	33	40	28	22	29	29	28	27
The White House	X	X	X	18	28	X	11	31	14	15	18
Organized religion	41	27	30	36	32	32	24	29	24	20	22
The courts and justice system	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Public schools	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Television news	X	X	X	41	31	35	28	28	35	37	29
Major companies	55	27	27	29	21	19	16	20	22	18	16
Organized labor	22	14	15	20	18	14	10	14	15	10	14
The press	29	18	18	30	25	26	20	18	23	28	19
Law firms	X	X	X	24	18	16	12	14	18	16	13
Congress	42	19	21	X	18	13	9	17	10	18	18
Wall Street	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	12
The executive branch of the federal government	41	23	27	19	28	13	11	23	14	17	17
HARRIS INTERACTIVE CONFIDENCE INDEX*	100	58	59	69	64	55	44	55	55	50	49
X = Not asked; * see methodology


TABLE 3 CONFIDENCE IN INSTITUTIONS; AVERAGE FOR INDEX IN EACH DECADE
	1960s		1970s		1980s		1990s		2000s		2010s
					1980	49	1990	50	2000	59	2010	53
			1971	58	1981	51	1991	45	2001	55
			1972	59	1982	46	1992	45	2002	65
			1973	69	1983	53	1993	47	2003*	57
			1974	64	1984	63	1994	43	2004	55
			1975	55	1985	51	1995	43	2005	53
	1966	100	1976	44	1986	51	1996	47	2006	52
			1977	55	1987	53	1997	42	2007	53
			1978	55	1988	50	1998	54	2008	44
			1979	50	1989	46	1999	60	2009	54
AVERAGE FOR DECADE	100		57		51		48		55		53
* Completed in December 2002


TABLE 4 CONFIDENCE LEVELS – BY PARTY “As far as people in charge of running … are concerned, would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence, or hardly any confidence at all in them?” Those saying “a great deal of confidence”
Base: All Adults

		Total	Party ID
		Total	Republican	Democrat	Independent
		%	%	%	%
	The military	59	79	54	55
	Small business	50	62	44	54
	Major educational institutions, such as colleges and universities	35	37	42	32
	Medicine	34	36	35	33
	The U.S. Supreme Court	31	33	32	29
	The White House	27	7	54	20
	Organized religion	26	42	21	20
	The courts and the justice system	24	19	29	28
	Public schools	22	23	30	18
	Television news	17	14	25	12
	Major companies	15	17	15	14
	Organized labor	14	7	27	11
	The press	13	8	22	10
	Law firms	13	13	16	10
	Congress	8	6	14	4
	Wall Street	8	5	12	5

Methodology

The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone within the United States between February 16 and 21, 2010 among a nationwide cross section of 1,010 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region, number of adults in the household, size of place (urbanicity), and number of phone lines voice/telephone lines in the household were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.

The Harris Interactive Confidence in Leadership Index measures changes in the public’s confidence in various institutions. It is derived in the following manner:

The index is based on the mean value of the items asked.
All items have equal weight.
The year 1966, the first year the items were asked, was set as a reference year for the index and assigned a score of 100.
In order to yield a score of 100 in 1966, the mean value of the original 10 items was multiplied by a factor of 2.11. This same factor was then applied to the mean score in subsequent years, as long as the same items were asked.
Whenever a new item is added, the multiplication factor is changed so that the new item has no effect on that year’s score. The new factor is derived by calculating the index with and without the new item(s), taking the ratio of the two scores, and multiplying this ratio by the old factor. (The current factor is 2.14).
In years when an item included in a previous year is not asked, it is assumed for calculation purposes that no change has occurred in that item since the last time it was asked.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling are subject to, multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words “margin of error” as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

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The Harris Poll^® #33, March 9, 2010
By Regina A. Corso, Director, The Harris Poll, Harris Interactive

About Harris Interactive

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