Americans Believe Avatar Should Win Best Picture Oscar on Sunday

Morgan Freeman and Sandra Bullock on top for acting Oscars

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--There are the dresses and the pageantry, as well as waiting to see what people will say during their acceptance speeches. But at the end of the night it comes down to three awards – best actor, best actress and best picture. There is also the new twist of having 10 movies nominated for best picture instead of the normal five.

“Will you watch the Oscars this year?”

This year, one in five Americans (18%) believes that Avatar should win the Academy Award for best picture while 15% say the Oscar should go to The Blind Side. One in ten U.S. adults (9%) say The Hurt Locker should win best picture, 6% say the award should go to Precious: Based on the novel Push by Sapphire, and 5% each say the Oscar should go to Up and Inglourious Basterds. Small percentages believe the Oscar should go to Up in the Air (2%) or District 9 (2%) and less than 1% believe it should go to A Serious Man or An Education. One-third of Americans (33%) are not sure who the best picture Oscar should go to this year and 5% say it should go to none of the nominated films.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,073 adults surveyed online between March 2 and 4, 2010 by Harris Interactive.

There is a gender divide for best picture. One in five men (20%) say Avatar should win the Oscar while one in five women (20%) believe it should go to The Blind Side.

Best Actor and Actress

When it comes to the best actor statue, just over one in five Americans (21%) say Morgan Freeman should win for his performance in Invictus while just under that (18%) say the Oscar should go to Jeff Bridges for his performance in Crazy Heart. One in ten U.S. adults (11%) believe George Clooney should win for Up in the Air, 6% say Jeremy Renner should win for The Hurt Locker and 1% believe Colin Firth should take the Oscar for his performance in A Single Man. Almost two in five Americans (38%), however, say they are not sure who should win the best actor Oscar.

For best actress, there is a clear front-runner as almost two in five Americans (37%) say Sandra Bullock should win the Academy Award for her performance in The Blind Side. For her performance as master chef Julia Child in Julie & Julia, 16% believe Meryl Streep should win the Oscar. One in ten (11%) believe Gabourey Sidibe should win for her performance in Precious: based on the novel Push by Sapphire, followed by Helen Mirren in The Last Station (2%) and Carey Mulligan in An Education (1%). Three in ten Americans (30%) are not sure who should win the Academy Award for best actress.

Who will be watching?

One thing the Academy Awards have struggled with over the past few years is who should host the show. This year, Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin will co-host the Awards. Over one-third of Americans (35%) believe they will be better compared to previous hosts while 36% say they will be neither better nor worse. Less than one in ten (8%) think they will be worse than the hosts from pervious telecasts.

There is also always the question of who is watching. As the shows drag on and on and producers struggle to find ways to keep the show entertaining, there is concern about lost viewers. Just over half of Americans (53%) say they will not watch the Oscars this year while 47% say they will. Women are more likely than men to say they will watch the award show (52% versus 43%).

So what?

These questions ask who Americans believe should win the Academy Awards and fan favorites and box office receipts play a large role in these choices. Avatar is critically acclaimed and has struck box-office gold so it may be like James Cameron’s previous blockbuster, Titanic, and also win the Oscar. But never count the underdogs out as the Academy has been known to produce surprises each and every year.

TABLE 1
BEST MOVIE
“Which movie should win the Oscar for Best Picture?”
Base: All adults
	Total	Gender		Age
		Men	Women	18-34	35-44	45-54	55+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Avatar	18	20	17	18	15	18	20
The Blind Side	15	10	20	14	10	17	17
The Hurt Locker	9	11	6	8	13	6	8
Precious: Based on the novel Push by Sapphire	6	4	8	4	8	9	5
Up	5	6	4	8	8	4	3
Inglourious Basterds	5	7	3	8	5	4	4
Up in the Air	2	1	3	2	3	*	2
District 9	2	2	2	3	3	2	*
A Serious Man	*	*	*	*	1	*	*
An Education	*	*	*	-	1	*	*
None of these	5	6	3	5	5	4	6
Not Sure	33	31	35	31	28	35	35

Note: Totals may not add to 100% because of rounding. Note: * indicates less than 0.5%; - indicates no response

TABLE 2
BEST ACTOR
“Who should win the Oscar for Best Actor?”
Base: All adults
	Total	Gender		Age
		Men	Women	18-34	35-44	45-54	55+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Morgan Freeman – Invictus	21	19	22	17	19	23	23
Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart	18	17	18	12	17	20	22
George Clooney -Up in the Air	11	9	13	15	11	9	9
Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker	6	9	3	7	9	5	5
Colin Firth – A Single Man	1	1	2	2	4	1	*
None of these	5	7	3	7	4	4	4
Not Sure	38	37	38	40	36	37	36

Note: Totals may not add to 100% because of rounding. Note: * indicates less than 0.5%

TABLE 3
BEST ACTRESS
“Who should win the Oscar for Best Actress?”
Base: All adults
	Total	Gender		Age
		Men	Women	18-34	35-44	45-54	55+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side	37	35	39	37	32	38	39
Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia	16	16	16	13	15	14	20
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious: Based on the novel Push by Sapphire	11	8	14	10	15	15	7
Helen Mirren – The Last Station	2	2	2	3	3	2	2
Carey Mulligan - An Education	1	1	*	1	*	2	*
None of these	3	4	2	4	2	3	2
Not Sure	30	34	27	32	32	27	29

Note: Totals may not add to 100% because of rounding.

Note: * indicates less than 0.5%

TABLE 4
THE HOSTS
“This year Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin will be co-hosting the Academy
Awards. How do you think they will compare to previous hosts?”
Base: All adults
	Total	Gender		Age
		Men	Women	18-34	35-44	45-54	55+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
BETTER (NET)	35	31	39	35	45	39	30
They will be much better	11	7	14	9	13	10	12
They will be somewhat better	25	24	26	26	32	29	19
They will be neither better nor worse	36	36	35	34	28	36	40
WORSE (NET)	8	10	6	6	8	7	11
They will be somewhat worse	5	6	5	5	6	3	7
They will be much worse	3	4	1	1	2	4	4
Not at all sure	21	22	19	25	19	18	19

Note: Totals may not add to 100% because of rounding.

TABLE 5
THE HOSTS
“Will you watch the Oscars this year?”
Base: All adults
	Total	Gender		Age
		Men	Women	18-34	35-44	45-54	55+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
WILL (NET)	47	43	52	43	52	48	48
Definitely will	15	12	18	17	14	15	15
Probably will	32	31	34	27	38	33	34
WILL NOT (NET)	53	57	48	57	48	52	52
Probably will not	36	33	38	39	34	34	34
Definitely will not	17	24	11	17	14	18	18

Note: Totals may not add to 100% because of rounding.

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between March 2 and 4, 2010 among 2,073 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words “margin of error” as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

The Harris Poll^® #32, March 5, 2010

By Regina Corso, Director, The Harris Poll, Harris Interactive

About Harris Interactive

Harris Interactive is one of the world’s leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American, European, and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us – and our clients – stay ahead of what’s next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.

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