NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) releases a new report that highlights falling import growth in the U.S., based on U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis fourth-quarter 2019 GDP data. To the extent that this data point implies a new normal, there could be implications for global growth going forward.
Beyond the Wuhan coronavirus, which is a powerful force shaping the near-term outlook, the recent GDP data also suggests the possibility of steeper downward revisions in global growth that could persist over the medium term.
The key takeaways from the report are:
- Import substitution appears to be afoot in the U.S., at least for 2019.
- The stickiness of this trend would reinforce one of KBRA’s structural global macro themes for the near-term—that deglobalization is underway.
- Falling U.S. import growth, to the extent that it is sustained, could add to downward revisions in global growth for 2020 and beyond.
To view the report, click here.
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KBRA is a full-service credit rating agency registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an NRSRO. In addition, KBRA is designated as a designated rating organization by the Ontario Securities Commission for issuers of asset-backed securities to file a short form prospectus or shelf prospectus. KBRA is also recognized by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners as a Credit Rating Provider and is a certified Credit Rating Agency (CRA) by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA). Kroll Bond Rating Agency Europe Limited is registered with ESMA as a CRA.