TORONTO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE.UN) today issued 2020 guidance.
Chemtrade expects its 2020 Adjusted EBITDA(1) to range between $300 million and $350 million.
Chemtrade’s guidance is based on numerous assumptions. Certain key assumptions that underpin the guidance are as follows:
- None of the principal manufacturing facilities (as set out in Chemtrade’s AIF) incurs significant unplanned downtime.
Key assumptions in the Electrochemicals (EC) Segment are as follows:
- North American Metric Electrochemical unit (“MECU”) production volume of approximately 190,000 tonnes;
- a 2020 average caustic soda price based on the 2020 average IHS NE Asia Caustic price Index being US$15 per tonne lower than the 2019 average IHS NE Asia caustic price Index; and
- North American production volume of sodium chlorate of approximately 420,000 tonnes.
- A foreign exchange rate of US$0.77 per C$1.00.
Chemtrade also expects:
- Maintenance Capital Expenditures to range between $80 million and $90 million.
- Lease Payments to range between $55 million and $60 million.
- Cash Interest (excluding the impact of IFRS 16) to range between $70 million and $75 million.
- Cash Taxes to range between $5 million and $10 million.
2020’s Adjusted EBITDA range is below that of 2019 due to the following reasons:
- A higher number of maintenance turnarounds in 2020 relative to 2019; particularly the biennial turnaround at the North Vancouver chlor-alkali facility and a major turnaround at a key refinery customer that takes place once every 5 years.
- The assumption for spot NE Asia caustic index is that the 2020 average will be below the 2019 average. This index value is a key variable in establishing Chemtrade’s selling price for caustic soda.
- An assumption that there will not be a recovery in hydrochloric acid (HCl) demand from the higher net-back fracking industry. The amount of realized net-back revenue is typically higher from the fracking industry than from the industrial market; however, the industrial market is less cyclical. To increase stability, Chemtrade added more industrial customers part-way through 2019. Thus the 2020 Guidance includes a full year of the lower realized net-back revenue as compared to 2019.
Commenting on the guidance for 2020, Mark Davis, President & CEO of Chemtrade, said, “Generally, our businesses are performing well, but 2020 will be affected by a biennial turnaround at our North Vancouver chlor-alkali plant and by a once every five-year turnaround by a key refinery customer. Also, while we are assuming near-term caustic soda weakness, we continue to believe that the long-term fundamentals for caustic soda, particularly in NE Asia remain favourable.”
Chemtrade operates a diversified business providing industrial chemicals and services to customers in North America and around the world. Chemtrade is one of North America’s largest suppliers of sulphuric acid, spent acid processing services, inorganic coagulants for water treatment, sodium chlorate, sodium nitrite, sodium hydrosulphite and phosphorus pentasulphide. Chemtrade is a leading regional supplier of sulphur, chlor-alkali products, liquid sulphur dioxide, potassium chloride, and zinc oxide. Additionally, Chemtrade provides industrial services such as processing by-products and waste streams.
(1) Non–IFRS Measures
EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA –
Management defines EBITDA as net earnings before any deduction for net finance costs, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Adjusted EBITDA also excludes other non-cash charges such as gains and losses on the disposal and write-down of assets, and unrealized foreign exchange gains and losses. EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA are metrics used by many investors and analysts to compare organizations on the basis of ability to generate cash from operations. Management considers Adjusted EBITDA (as defined) to be an indirect measure of operating cash flow, which is a significant indicator of the success of any business. Adjusted EBITDA is not intended to be representative of cash flow from operations or results of operations determined in accordance with IFRS or cash available for distribution.
EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA are not recognized measures under IFRS. Chemtrade's method of calculating EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA may differ from methods used by other income trusts or companies, and accordingly may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other organizations.
Caution Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements contained in this news release constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of certain securities laws, including the Securities Act (Ontario). Forward-looking statements can be generally identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”, “continue”, “estimate”, “expect”, “expected”, “intend”, “may”, “will”, “project”, “plan”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions. Specifically, forward-looking statements in this news release include statements respecting certain future expectations about: the Fund’s expected adjusted EBITDA range and expected placement within that range for 2020; the expected 2020 range of maintenance capital expenditures, cash interest and cash taxes; and favourable long-term fundamentals for caustic soda. Forward-looking statements in this news release describe the expectations of the Fund and its subsidiaries as of the date hereof. These statements are based on assumptions and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements for a variety of reasons, including without limitation the risks and uncertainties detailed under the “RISK FACTORS” section of the Fund’s latest Annual Information Form and the “RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES” section of the Fund’s most recent Management’s Discussion & Analysis.
Although the Fund believes the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements and the assumptions upon which they are based are reasonable, no assurance can be given that actual results will be consistent with such forward-looking statements, and they should not be unduly relied upon. With respect to the forward-looking statements contained in this news release, the Fund has made assumptions regarding: there being no significant disruptions affecting the principal manufacturing facilities; the stated North American MECU and sodium chlorate production volumes; the 2020 average caustic soda price; the stated U.S. dollar foreign exchange rate; the number of maintenance turn-arounds occurring; the 2020 average spot NE Asia caustic index; and the lack of recovery in fracking demand for HCl.
Except as required by law, the Fund does not undertake to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or for any other reason. The forward-looking statements contained herein are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement.